UK Claimant Count Change - ForexCracked
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United Kingdom · Employment

UK Claimant Count Change GBP

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Tue, Sep 15 06:00 UTC · consensus 15.8K · previous 6.7K  

What this release is

The UK Claimant Count Change measures the monthly change in the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits in the United Kingdom. This data is compiled and released by the Office for National Statistics, ONS, typically as part of a broader labor market report.

Forex traders monitor the Claimant Count Change as a key indicator of the health of the UK labor market. A significant increase in claimants suggests a weakening job market, which can signal potential economic slowdown. Conversely, a decrease often indicates a strengthening economy. These trends can influence the Bank of England’s monetary policy decisions, impacting interest rate expectations and, consequently, the British Pound, GBP.

The market typically focuses on the headline Claimant Count Change figure upon release. Revisions to prior months’ data are also closely watched, as they can alter the perceived trend of the labor market. While the release occurs monthly, its impact rating is generally considered Medium, reflecting its role as one component within a larger economic picture.

How hard it hits, measured

122 releases · own feed
Typical GBPUSD move
15pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
27pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
81pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
GBPUSD7.0p9.4p15p27p
EURGBP3.8p4.5p7.6p14p
GBPAUD9.7p12p22p37p
GBPCAD9.2p8.8p15p30p
GBPCHF6.2p6.4p12p23p
GBPJPY10p13p17p35p
GBPNZD12p13p22p39p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus GBPUSD closed the hour higher in 28 of 50 cases · median +4.1p n=50 live
Miss below consensus GBPUSD closed the hour higher in 22 of 43 cases · median +0.3p n=43 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=1 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toGBPUSD 1h
Jul 21, 20266.7K24K31.3K1.3K+4.5p
Jun 18, 202631.3K23.2K26.5K8.2K+13p
May 19, 202626.5K10.9K26.8K5K-17p
Apr 21, 202626.8K24.7K17.1K+2.1p
Mar 19, 202624.7K28.6K4.7K-2.9p
Feb 17, 202628.6K17.9K2.7K-49p
Jan 20, 202617.9K20.1K-3.3K+40p
Dec 16, 202520.1K29K-3.9K+11p
Nov 11, 202529K25.7K25.7K-28p
Oct 14, 202525.7K20.2K17.4K-2K-60p
Sep 16, 202517.4K-6.2K-33.3K+10p
Aug 12, 2025-6.2K25.9K25.9K+10p
Jul 17, 202525.9K33.9K33.1K15.3K-9.9p
Jun 10, 202533.1K31.2K5.2K-21.1K-58p
May 13, 20255.2K18.7K-16.9K-1.3p
Apr 15, 202518.7K44.2K44.2K-6.5p
Mar 20, 202544.2K31.5K22K2.8K-14p
Feb 18, 202522K13.4K0.7K-15.1K+14p
Jan 21, 20250.7K0.3K0.3K+4.6p
Dec 17, 20240.3K27.3K26.6K-10.9K+28p
Nov 12, 202426.6K89.6K27.9K10.1K-10p
Oct 15, 202427.9K23.7K0.3K+4.4p
Sep 10, 202423.7K135K135K+27p
Aug 13, 2024135K26.4K32.3K36.2K+24p

Showing the latest 24 of 121 tracked releases.

Reaction = GBPUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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