UK GDP m/m preview: Consensus points to contraction
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| GBPUSD | — | — |
The UK’s monthly Gross Domestic Product figures are scheduled for release on October 15 at 06:00 UTC. Market consensus anticipates a contraction of -0.1% for the month. This would mark a notable slowdown from the previous reading of 0.4%. As a high impact release, the GDP m/m data provides a timely indicator of the UK economy’s short-term health and growth trajectory.
Historically, this release has generated significant movement across GBP pairs. For GBPUSD, the median 1-hour move after past releases has been 13 pips, with top-quarter releases seeing moves of 22+ pips. Direction reliability on GBPUSD has been observed at 57% over a live sample. Other pairs also show notable reactions. GBPNZD and GBPJPY have seen median 1-hour moves of 18 pips and 15 pips respectively, with top-quarter moves reaching 29+ pips for both. GBPAUD typically sees a median move of 17 pips, with top-quarter events exceeding 25+ pips. GBPCAD has a median move of 12 pips, with top-quarter moves of 23+ pips. GBPCHF has a median move of 10 pips, with top-quarter moves of 18+ pips. EURGBP typically moves 6 pips on average, with top-quarter releases moving 12+ pips.
Recent releases show varied outcomes. In August 2026, the actual reading of 0.3% against a forecast of 0% was followed by a -11 pips move in GBPUSD. June 2026 saw an actual of -0.1% matching the forecast, with GBPUSD moving +11 pips. May 2026’s 0.3% actual led to a +12 pips move. Earlier in March 2026, an actual of 0% matching the forecast was followed by a -36 pips move in GBPUSD.