UK GDP m/m - ForexCracked
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United Kingdom · Gdp

UK GDP m/m GBP

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Sep 11 06:00 UTC · consensus 0.0% · previous 0.3%  

What this release is

The UK Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, measures the total value of goods and services produced in the United Kingdom. The monthly GDP report provides a timely indicator of economic activity. This data is compiled and released by the Office for National Statistics, ONS.

Forex traders monitor UK GDP data as a primary gauge of the nation’s economic health. Stronger economic growth can influence the Bank of England’s monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates. Expectations of higher interest rates, or the perception of a robust economy, have historically supported the British Pound. Conversely, weaker growth can suggest potential for looser monetary policy, which may weigh on the currency.

The market typically focuses on the headline monthly growth figure upon release. Revisions to prior months’ data, which are often included in the report, also receive attention as they can alter the overall economic picture. The impact rating for this release is typically Medium. After past releases, significant deviations from consensus expectations have sometimes prompted notable GBP price movements, reflecting shifts in economic outlook.

How hard it hits, measured

98 releases · own feed
Typical GBPUSD move
13pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
22pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
69pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
GBPUSD4.6p7.1p13p22p
EURGBP3.3p3.8p6.1p12p
GBPAUD7.3p8.7p17p26p
GBPCAD5.5p7.0p12p23p
GBPCHF5.3p6.3p9.9p18p
GBPJPY7.8p9.3p15p28p
GBPNZD7.9p9.9p17p29p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus GBPUSD closed the hour higher in 20 of 32 cases · median +4.6p n=32 live
Miss below consensus GBPUSD closed the hour lower in 17 of 30 cases · median -1.4p n=30 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=5 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toGBPUSD 1h
Aug 13, 20260.3%0%-0.1%0%-11p—
Jun 12, 2026-0.1%-0.1%0.3%0.3%+11p—
May 14, 20260.3%—0.5%0.5%+12p—
Apr 16, 20260.5%0%0%0.1%+5.3p—
Mar 13, 20260%0%0.1%0.1%-36p—
Feb 12, 20260.1%—0.3%0.3%+16p—
Jan 15, 20260.3%0%-0.1%-0.1%+7.6p—
Dec 12, 2025-0.1%—-0.1%-0.1%-9.5p—
Nov 13, 2025-0.1%—0.1%0%+20p—
Oct 16, 20250.1%—0%0%-6.0p—
Sep 12, 20250%0.1%0.4%0.4%-1.0p—
Aug 14, 20250.4%—-0.1%-0.1%+6.8p—
Jul 11, 2025-0.1%—-0.3%-0.3%-27p—
Jun 12, 2025-0.3%0.3%0.2%0.2%-23p—
May 15, 20250.2%—0.5%0.5%+31p—
Apr 11, 20250.5%0.2%-0.1%0%+15p—
Mar 14, 2025-0.1%—0.4%0.4%-13p—
Feb 13, 20250.4%0%0.1%0.1%+22p—
Jan 16, 20250.1%—-0.1%-0.1%-1.4p—
Dec 13, 2024-0.1%—-0.1%-0.1%-37p—
Nov 15, 2024-0.1%-0.1%0.2%0.2%-16p—
Oct 11, 20240.2%—0%0%+0.1p—
Sep 11, 20240%0%0%—-20p—
Aug 15, 20240%0%0.4%—+11p—

Showing the latest 24 of 97 tracked releases.

Reaction = GBPUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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