UK GDP m/m preview: Consensus points to flat growth
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| GBPUSD | — | — |
The United Kingdom is set to release its monthly Gross Domestic Product figures on September 11 at 06:00 UTC. Market consensus anticipates a 0.0% month-over-month growth, a notable deceleration from the previous reading of 0.3%. This economic indicator is considered high impact, reflecting the overall health of the UK economy. A deviation from the consensus could influence sentiment surrounding the Bank of England’s monetary policy outlook, particularly regarding future interest rate decisions.
Historically, this release has generated significant volatility across GBP pairs. For GBPUSD, the median 1-hour move after past releases has been 13 pips, with top-quarter releases seeing moves of 22+ pips across 98 releases since 2015. Direction reliability on GBPUSD stands at 57%. Other pairs also show substantial movement. GBPAUD and GBPNZD have seen median 1-hour moves of 17 pips, with top-quarter moves exceeding 26+ pips and 29+ pips respectively. GBPJPY typically sees a median 1-hour move of 15 pips, with top-quarter moves of 28+ pips. Even EURGBP, a cross pair, has a median 1-hour move of 6 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 12+ pips.
Recent releases have shown varied outcomes. The August 2026 print registered 0.3% growth, aligning with the previous reading, and GBPUSD moved -11 pips in the hour following. The June 2026 release saw a -0.1% actual reading, matching its forecast, and GBPUSD moved +11 pips. In May 2026, GDP was 0.3%, leading to a +12 pips move for GBPUSD.