UK Retail Sales m/m comes in at 1% against -1% consensus

UK Retail Sales m/m for July 2026 was released at 1%, significantly exceeding the consensus expectation of -1%. This print marked a notable improvement from the previous month’s figure of -1.3%. The actual result represented a 200.0% surprise compared to the consensus.

Following the release, initial market reactions for GBP pairs were varied. EURGBP moved -0.9 pips after 5 minutes and +0.3 pips after 15 minutes. GBPAUD saw a -1.0 pip move at 5 minutes and -3.8 pips at 15 minutes. GBPCAD gained +4.4 pips initially, then settled to +1.6 pips after 15 minutes. GBPCHF moved +2.5 pips at 5 minutes, then -0.4 pips at 15 minutes. GBPJPY saw a +1.2 pip move at 5 minutes, followed by -1.2 pips at 15 minutes. GBPNZD moved +1.7 pips at 5 minutes and +3.6 pips at 15 minutes. GBPUSD moved +2.1 pips at 5 minutes and +1.7 pips at 15 minutes. These measured moves across the pairs are generally small when compared to their typical median 1-hour moves, which range from 7 pips for EURGBP to 17 pips for GBPNZD. For GBPUSD, the direction reliability after past releases has been 68%.