UK Retail Sales m/m - ForexCracked
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United Kingdom · Consumer

UK Retail Sales m/m GBP

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Sep 18 06:00 UTC · consensus 0.9% · previous 1%  

What this release is

UK Retail Sales month over month measures the percentage change in the total value of goods sold by retailers across the United Kingdom compared to the previous month. This economic indicator is published by the Office for National Statistics, providing a timely snapshot of consumer spending trends.

Forex traders monitor this release closely because consumer spending is a significant driver of economic growth. Strong retail sales data can signal robust consumer demand, which may contribute to inflationary pressures. The Bank of England considers inflation and economic growth when formulating its monetary policy, including decisions on interest rates. Changes in interest rate expectations can influence the attractiveness of the British Pound.

Upon release, market attention typically centers on the headline retail sales figure. Significant deviations from analyst expectations often lead to immediate price adjustments for GBP. Revisions to previous months’ data are also observed for their potential to alter the broader economic narrative. The typical impact rating for this release is considered Medium.

How hard it hits, measured

128 releases · own feed
Typical GBPUSD move
11pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
22pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
86pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
GBPUSD6.7p8.0p11p22p
EURGBP4.1p4.3p7.2p11p
GBPAUD10p11p15p29p
GBPCAD9.2p9.2p15p24p
GBPCHF6.0p6.4p11p18p
GBPJPY9.1p11p13p29p
GBPNZD11p12p17p31p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus GBPUSD closed the hour higher in 29 of 52 cases · median +2.2p n=52 live
Miss below consensus GBPUSD closed the hour lower in 33 of 39 cases · median -13p n=39 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=7 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toGBPUSD 1h
Jul 24, 20261%-1%-1.3%1.2%+16pStory
Jun 19, 2026————+5.8p—
May 22, 2026-1.3%—0.7%0.6%+2.1p—
Apr 24, 20260.7%—-0.4%-0.6%-1.4p—
Mar 27, 2026-0.4%—1.8%2%-22p—
Feb 20, 20261.8%—0.4%0.4%-0.8p—
Jan 23, 20260.4%0.2%-0.1%-0.1%+8.7p—
Dec 19, 2025-0.1%—-1.1%-0.9%-17p—
Nov 21, 2025-1.1%—0.5%0.5%-9.6p—
Oct 24, 20250.5%-0.1%0.6%—+14p—
Sep 19, 2025————-36p—
Sep 5, 20250.6%-0.1%0.9%0.3%-5.3p—
Jul 25, 20250.9%-1.2%-2.7%-2.8%-13p—
Jun 20, 2025-2.7%-0.3%1.2%1.3%-28p—
May 23, 20251.2%-0.6%0.4%0.1%-7.5p—
Apr 25, 20250.4%—1%0.7%+28p—
Mar 28, 20251%—1.7%1.7%+9.3p—
Feb 21, 20251.7%0.9%-0.3%-0.6%+9.7p—
Jan 17, 2025-0.3%-3%0.2%0.1%-41p—
Dec 20, 20240.2%-3.2%-0.7%—-1.9p—
Nov 22, 2024-0.7%-1.7%0.3%0.1%+2.2p—
Oct 18, 20240.3%0.3%1%—+36p—
Sep 20, 20241%-1.7%0.5%0.7%+33p—
Aug 16, 20240.5%—-1.2%-1.2%-1.1p—

Showing the latest 24 of 127 tracked releases.

Reaction = GBPUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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