Unemployment Rate (AUD) preview: Market consensus holds at 4.4%

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the Unemployment Rate for Australia on 2026-07-23 at 01:30 UTC. The market consensus forecast is for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.4%. This matches the previous reading of 4.4%. As a key indicator of labor market health, this release carries a High impact rating, influencing expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy decisions.

Historically, this release has generated significant market activity. Our data shows that after past Unemployment Rate releases, AUDCAD has seen a median 1-hour move of 17 pips, with top-quarter moves exceeding 28 pips. AUDCHF has moved a median of 13 pips, with top-quarter moves above 22 pips. For AUDJPY, the median move was 20 pips, and top-quarter moves were over 31 pips. AUDNZD recorded a median move of 16 pips, with top-quarter moves above 32 pips. AUDUSD typically saw a median 1-hour move of 15 pips, with top-quarter releases moving more than 24 pips. Cross pairs also show notable movements, with EURAUD experiencing a median 1-hour move of 27 pips and top-quarter moves over 53 pips, while GBPAUD saw a median move of 30 pips and top-quarter moves above 55 pips. These statistics are measured over 117 to 119 releases since 2015, depending on the pair.

Recent releases have shown varied outcomes. In June 2026, the actual rate was 4.4% against a 4.3% forecast, with AUDUSD moving –4.3 pips in the hour following. The May 2026 release saw an actual 4.5% versus a 4.3% forecast, leading to a –42 pips AUDUSD move. April 2026 recorded 4.3% against a 4.1% forecast, with AUDUSD moving +11 pips. Earlier in 2026, prints included 4.3% in March, 4.1% in February, and 4.1% in January, each with corresponding AUDUSD 1-hour moves.