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Australia

Unemployment Rate AUD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Nov 19 00:30 UTC · consensus 4.8% · previous 4.7%  

What this release is

The Unemployment Rate for Australia measures the percentage of the labor force that is jobless and actively seeking employment. This key labour market indicator is published monthly by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, abs.gov.au. It offers a broad perspective on the nation’s employment situation.

Forex traders monitor the Unemployment Rate closely because it provides insight into the health of the Australian economy. A lower unemployment rate often indicates a stronger economy, which can influence the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates. Changes in interest rate expectations can impact the Australian dollar.

After past releases, market participants typically focus on the headline unemployment figure. Revisions to prior months’ data can also attract attention and influence market reactions. As a monthly release, its timing is a regular feature on the economic calendar.

How hard it hits, measured

123 releases · own feed
Typical AUDUSD move
15pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
24pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
85pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
AUDUSD11p12p15p24p
AUDCAD13p15p17p28p
AUDCHF10p12p13p22p
AUDJPY15p16p20p31p
AUDNZD15p17p17p32p
EURAUD26p24p27p53p
GBPAUD29p25p30p55p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus AUDUSD closed the hour lower in 30 of 42 cases · median -11p n=42 live
Miss below consensus AUDUSD closed the hour higher in 26 of 34 cases · median +10p n=34 live
In line within the surprise band AUDUSD closed the hour higher in 17 of 32 cases · median +4.2p n=32 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toAUDUSD 1h
Oct 15, 20264.7%4.6%4.6%4.7%-26p—
Sep 24, 20264.6%4.5%4.5%—-9.4p—
Aug 20, 20264.5%4.3%4.4%—-13pStory
Jul 23, 20264.4%4.5%4.4%—+14p—
Jun 25, 20264.4%4.3%4.5%—-4.3p—
May 21, 20264.5%4.3%4.3%—-42p—
Apr 16, 20264.3%4.1%4.3%—+11p—
Mar 19, 20264.3%4%4.1%—+2.7p—
Feb 19, 20264.1%4.1%4.1%—+19p—
Jan 22, 20264.1%4.3%4.3%—+33p—
Dec 11, 20254.3%4.4%4.3%—+0.7p—
Nov 13, 20254.3%4.4%4.5%—+21p—
Oct 16, 20254.5%4.3%4.2%4.3%-20p—
Sep 18, 20254.2%4.2%4.2%—-0.4p—
Aug 14, 20254.2%4.2%4.3%—+4.3p—
Jul 17, 20254.3%4%4.1%—-33p—
Jun 19, 20254.1%4%4.1%—-13p—
May 15, 20254.1%4%4.1%—-1.3p—
Apr 17, 20254.1%4%4.1%4%+8.8p—
Mar 20, 20254.1%4.1%4.1%—-22p—
Feb 20, 20254.1%4.1%4%—+7.8p—
Jan 16, 20254%4.1%3.9%—+0.7p—
Dec 12, 20243.9%4.2%4.1%—+34p—
Nov 14, 20244.1%4.2%4.1%—-4.7p—

Showing the latest 24 of 123 tracked releases.

Reaction = AUDUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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