US Average Hourly Earnings m/m preview: Consensus holds at 0.3%
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its Average Hourly Earnings m/m report on August 7, 2026, at 12:30 UTC. Market consensus anticipates a 0.3% increase for the month, aligning with the previous reading of 0.3%. This release is rated as high impact and is closely watched by market participants for insights into wage inflation pressures, a critical component of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy considerations.
Historically, this release has generated significant market activity. After past releases, EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 21 pips, with top-quarter events moving 41+ pips. GBPUSD has experienced a median 1-hour move of 22 pips, with top-quarter moves exceeding 48 pips. USDJPY has recorded a median 1-hour move of 26 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 42+ pips. USDCAD also showed a median 1-hour move of 26 pips, with top-quarter events moving 41+ pips. AUDUSD and NZDUSD both saw median 1-hour moves of 16 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 27+ pips and 29+ pips respectively. USDCHF recorded a median 1-hour move of 17 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 31+ pips. XAUUSD, or Gold, has shown a median 1-hour move of 54 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 124+ pips. The direction reliability on EURUSD after these releases has been 58%.
Recent history shows the actual print matching the forecast in July 2026 at 0.3%. In June 2026, the actual also came in at 0.3% against a 0.3% forecast, which was followed by a -50 pip 1-hour move on EURUSD. Prior to that, May 2026 saw a 0.2% actual against a 0.3% forecast, while April 2026 also printed 0.2% against a 0.3% forecast.