US Core CPI m/m preview: Consensus points to 0.2% rise after flat previous month
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The US Core CPI month over month report is scheduled for release on August 12, 2026 at 12:30 UTC. Market consensus anticipates a 0.2% increase, following the previous reading of 0.0%. This high impact release is closely watched for insights into underlying inflation trends, which can influence Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
Historically, this release has generated significant market movement. For EURUSD, the median 1-hour move after past releases has been 21 pips, with top-quarter events seeing moves of 38+ pips over 127 releases since 2015. GBPUSD has seen a median move of 22 pips, with top-quarter moves exceeding 42+ pips. XAUUSD, or Gold, has shown a median 1-hour move of 52 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 108+ pips. The direction reliability for EURUSD after these events stands at 61%.
Recent prints have shown varied outcomes. The July 2026 reading was -0.0%, against a forecast of 0.2%, and resulted in a +37 pips EURUSD 1-hour move. In June 2026, the actual was 0.2%, aligning with the forecast, and EURUSD moved +11 pips. May 2026 saw a 0.4% actual against a 0.1% forecast, leading to a -0.9 pips EURUSD move.