US Core CPI m/m preview: Inflation data in focus
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The US Core CPI month over month report is scheduled for release on September 11, 2026, at 12:30 UTC. Market consensus anticipates a 0.2% increase, matching the previous month’s reading. This high-impact release provides a key measure of underlying inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, and is closely watched for its implications on Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
Historically, this release has often led to significant market movements. For EURUSD, the median 1-hour move after past releases has been 21 pips, with top-quarter releases seeing moves of 38+ pips. GBPUSD has shown a median 1-hour move of 22 pips, and top-quarter moves of 42+ pips. USDJPY has experienced a median 1-hour move of 21 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 38+ pips. Gold, XAUUSD, has seen a median 1-hour move of 51 pips, and top-quarter releases have moved 106+ pips. Other pairs like AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, and USDCHF have typically seen median 1-hour moves of 15 pips. The direction reliability on EURUSD after past releases stands at 61%.
Recent releases have shown varied market reactions. The August 2026 report, which also printed at 0.2% matching the forecast, saw EURUSD move +7.2 pips in the hour following. In July 2026, an actual print of -0.0% against a 0.2% forecast resulted in a larger EURUSD move of +37 pips. The May 2026 release, which came in at 0.4% against a 0.1% forecast, saw EURUSD move -0.9 pips.