US Core PCE Price Index m/m preview: Consensus points to slower inflation
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The US Core PCE Price Index month over month is scheduled for release on July 30 at 12:30 UTC. This high-impact inflation gauge is closely watched by the Federal Reserve. Market consensus projects a reading of 0.2%, a deceleration from the previous month’s 0.3%. A print aligning with or deviating significantly from this expectation could influence market sentiment regarding future monetary policy.
Historically, this release has often led to significant price action. After past releases, EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 11 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 20+ pips. GBPUSD has experienced a median 1-hour move of 13 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 26+ pips. USDJPY typically sees a median 1-hour move of 10 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 21+ pips. Gold, XAUUSD, has shown a median 1-hour move of 29 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 50+ pips. Direction reliability on EURUSD has been measured at 46% over the live sample.
Recent prints for Core PCE have shown varying outcomes relative to forecasts. The June 25, 2026 release came in at 0.3% against a 0.1% forecast, followed by a +25 pips EURUSD 1-hour move. The May 28, 2026 release was 0.3% versus a 0.2% forecast, leading to an +8.5 pips EURUSD 1-hour move. In April 2026, the actual was 0.3%, matching the 0.3% forecast, resulting in a -8.8 pips EURUSD 1-hour move.