US GDP q/q comes in at 1.5% against 1.7% consensus

The US GDP quarter over quarter growth was reported at 1.5%. This figure came in below the consensus expectation of 1.7%. The actual print also represented a slowdown from the previous quarter’s 2.1% growth. The surprise against consensus was -11.8%.

Following the release, initial market reactions varied across currency pairs. The AUDUSD moved +0.9 pips within 15 minutes, while the EURUSD saw a +5.2 pips change. GBPUSD registered a -0.3 pips move, and NZDUSD moved +0.5 pips. USDCAD was up +3.6 pips, and USDCHF showed a +0.3 pips change. USDJPY moved -17 pips, and XAUUSD moved +7.2 pips. For most pairs, these initial 15-minute movements were smaller than their respective median 1-hour moves observed after past GDP releases. For example, EURUSD typically sees a median 1-hour move of 11 pips, and AUDUSD a median 1-hour move of 9 pips. USDJPY’s -17 pips move was larger than its median 1-hour move of 10 pips. Direction reliability on EURUSD after past releases has been 56%.