US GDP q/q - ForexCracked
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United States · Gdp

US GDP q/q USD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Wed, Sep 30 12:30 UTC · consensus 1.5% · previous 1.5%  

What this release is

The Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, measures the total value of all goods and services produced within the United States economy over a specific period. This quarterly release provides an annualized rate of change from the previous quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis, BEA, an agency of the U.S. Department of Commerce, publishes this data. It is a comprehensive indicator of economic health.

Forex traders closely monitor GDP data due to its significant implications for U.S. monetary policy. Stronger economic growth, as indicated by higher GDP figures, can lead the Federal Reserve to consider tightening monetary policy, such as raising interest rates, to manage inflation. Conversely, weaker GDP growth might prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt more accommodative policies. These policy shifts directly influence the attractiveness and valuation of the U.S. dollar in the global currency markets.

The market typically focuses on the headline GDP growth rate upon its initial release. However, the GDP report undergoes several revisions. The advance estimate is followed by a second estimate and then a third, or final, estimate in subsequent months. These revisions can sometimes lead to renewed market reactions if they significantly alter the initial perception of economic performance. After past releases, the U.S. dollar has often experienced notable volatility, reflecting the High typical impact rating of this series.

How hard it hits, measured

120 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
11pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
18pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
69pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD5.7p7.5p11p18p
AUDUSD4.0p5.2p8.7p14p
GBPUSD6.5p9.3p15p27p
NZDUSD3.8p3.9p8.9p13p
USDCAD5.2p6.6p11p23p
USDCHF5.3p6.5p9.9p18p
USDJPY7.9p10p11p28p
XAUUSD18p28p25p77p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 24 of 43 cases · median -4.8p n=43 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 21 of 40 cases · median +0.9p n=40 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour higher in 13 of 24 cases · median +2.1p n=24 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Aug 26, 20261.5%1.5%1.5%-15p
Jul 30, 20261.5%1.7%2.1%+3.8pStory
Jun 25, 20262.1%1.6%1.6%+25p
May 28, 20261.6%2%2%+8.5p
Apr 30, 20262%-0.2%0.5%-8.8p
Apr 9, 20260.5%0.7%0.7%+3.5p
Mar 13, 20260.7%1.4%1.4%+8.2p
Feb 20, 20261.4%4.2%4.4%-13p
Jan 22, 20264.4%4.3%3.8%+2.1p
Dec 23, 20254.3%3.1%3.8%-17p
Sep 25, 20253.8%3.3%3.3%-34p
Aug 28, 20253.3%3%3%-9.0p
Jul 30, 20253%0.4%-0.5%-50p
Jun 26, 2025-0.5%-0.2%-0.2%+12p
May 29, 2025-0.2%-0.3%-0.3%+60p
Apr 30, 2025-0.3%2.4%2.4%-11p
Mar 27, 20252.4%2.3%2.3%-9.3p
Feb 27, 20252.3%2.3%2.3%-43p
Jan 30, 20252.3%2.8%3.1%+18p
Dec 19, 20243.1%2.8%2.8%-7.1p
Nov 27, 20242.8%2.8%2.8%+24p
Oct 30, 20242.8%3.2%3%+10p
Sep 26, 20243%3%3%-5.0p
Aug 29, 20243%2.8%2.8%-11p

Showing the latest 24 of 118 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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