US GDP q/q - ForexCracked
United States · Gdp

US GDP q/q USD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Oct 29 12:30 UTC · consensus 1.4% · previous 2.2%  

What this release is

The Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, measures the total value of all goods and services produced within the United States economy over a specific period. This quarterly release provides an annualized rate of change from the previous quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis, BEA, an agency of the U.S. Department of Commerce, publishes this data. It is a comprehensive indicator of economic health.

Forex traders closely monitor GDP data due to its significant implications for U.S. monetary policy. Stronger economic growth, as indicated by higher GDP figures, can lead the Federal Reserve to consider tightening monetary policy, such as raising interest rates, to manage inflation. Conversely, weaker GDP growth might prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt more accommodative policies. These policy shifts directly influence the attractiveness and valuation of the U.S. dollar in the global currency markets.

The market typically focuses on the headline GDP growth rate upon its initial release. However, the GDP report undergoes several revisions. The advance estimate is followed by a second estimate and then a third, or final, estimate in subsequent months. These revisions can sometimes lead to renewed market reactions if they significantly alter the initial perception of economic performance. After past releases, the U.S. dollar has often experienced notable volatility, reflecting the High typical impact rating of this series.

How hard it hits, measured

119 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
11pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
18pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
69pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD5.7p7.6p11p18p
AUDUSD4.1p5.2p8.7p14p
GBPUSD6.5p9.3p14p27p
NZDUSD3.8p3.9p8.9p14p
USDCAD5.2p6.8p11p23p
USDCHF5.3p6.5p9.9p18p
USDJPY8.0p10p10p28p
XAUUSD18p28p25p75p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 24 of 44 cases · median -4.2p n=44 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 21 of 40 cases · median +0.9p n=40 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour higher in 13 of 24 cases · median +2.1p n=24 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Sep 30, 20262.2%1.5%1.5%—+2.1p—
Aug 26, 20261.5%1.5%1.5%—-15p—
Jul 30, 20261.5%1.7%2.1%—+3.8pStory
Jun 25, 20262.1%1.6%1.6%—+25p—
May 28, 20261.6%2%2%—+8.5p—
Apr 30, 20262%-0.2%0.5%—-8.8p—
Apr 9, 20260.5%0.7%0.7%—+3.5p—
Mar 13, 20260.7%1.4%1.4%—+8.2p—
Feb 20, 20261.4%4.2%4.4%—-13p—
Jan 22, 20264.4%—4.3%3.8%+2.1p—
Dec 23, 20254.3%3.1%3.8%—-17p—
Sep 25, 20253.8%3.3%3.3%—-34p—
Aug 28, 20253.3%3%3%—-9.0p—
Jul 30, 20253%0.4%-0.5%—-50p—
Jun 26, 2025-0.5%-0.2%-0.2%—+12p—
May 29, 2025-0.2%-0.3%-0.3%—+60p—
Apr 30, 2025-0.3%2.4%2.4%—-11p—
Mar 27, 20252.4%2.3%2.3%—-9.3p—
Feb 27, 20252.3%2.3%2.3%—-43p—
Jan 30, 20252.3%2.8%3.1%—+18p—
Dec 19, 20243.1%2.8%2.8%—-7.1p—
Nov 27, 20242.8%2.8%2.8%—+24p—
Oct 30, 20242.8%3.2%3%—+10p—
Sep 26, 20243%3%3%—-5.0p—

Showing the latest 24 of 119 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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