US GDP q/q preview: Market consensus holds at 1.5%

The United States is scheduled to release its quarterly GDP figures on August 26 at 12:30 UTC. This is a high impact event for the market. The current market consensus forecasts a 1.5% growth rate for the quarter, which is identical to the previous reading of 1.5%. GDP is a key indicator of economic health, reflecting the total value of goods and services produced, and is closely watched by policymakers and traders alike. The unchanged consensus suggests expectations for a stable, albeit moderate, pace of economic expansion.

Historically, this release has generated significant price action across major currency pairs and gold. For EURUSD, the median 1-hour move after past releases was 11 pips, with top-quarter releases seeing moves of 18+ pips over 118 releases since 2015. GBPUSD has shown a median 1-hour move of 15 pips, with top-quarter moves exceeding 27 pips across 118 releases. USDJPY’s median 1-hour move was 11 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 27+ pips over 113 releases. Gold, XAUUSD, typically sees a median 1-hour move of 24 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 74+ pips over 117 releases. The direction reliability on EURUSD for this event stands at 56%.

Recent US GDP releases have shown varied outcomes compared to forecasts. The most recent print in July 2026 came in at 1.5% against a forecast of 1.7%, resulting in a +3.8 pips EURUSD 1-hour move. In June 2026, the actual was 2.1% versus a 1.6% forecast, leading to a +25 pips EURUSD 1-hour move. The May 2026 release saw an actual of 1.6% against a 2.0% forecast, with EURUSD moving +8.5 pips.