US GDP q/q preview: Consensus points to slight growth acceleration
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The United States is scheduled to release its latest Gross Domestic Product, GDP, figures on July 30 at 12:30 UTC. This high impact economic indicator is a key measure of economic activity. Market consensus anticipates a reading of 2.1% for the quarter, a modest increase from the previous quarter’s 2.0% actual print. Traders will monitor this release closely for insights into the pace of US economic expansion.
Historically, the US GDP release has often led to notable market movements. After past releases, EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 11 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 18+ pips. GBPUSD has typically experienced larger shifts, with a median 1-hour move of 14 pips and top-quarter releases moving 27+ pips. For USDJPY, the median 1-hour move was 10 pips, while top-quarter events moved 27+ pips. Gold, XAUUSD, has shown particularly strong reactions, with a median 1-hour move of 25 pips and top-quarter releases moving 75+ pips. The direction reliability on EURUSD after past releases stands at 56%.
Recent US GDP releases have shown varied outcomes relative to forecasts. The June 25, 2026 release recorded an actual of 2.1% against a forecast of 1.6%, with EURUSD moving +25 pips in the hour following. In May 2026, the actual came in at 1.6% compared to a 2.0% forecast, resulting in an +8.5 pips EURUSD 1-hour move. The April 30, 2026 release saw an actual of 2.0% against a -0.2% forecast, leading to a -8.8 pips EURUSD 1-hour move.