US Trade Balance comes in at -88.576B against -75.77B consensus

The US Trade Balance for September 3, 2026, reported a deficit of -88.576B. This figure was wider than the consensus expectation of -75.77B, representing a -16.9% surprise against forecasts. The actual deficit also widened compared to the previous reading of -73.261B.

Following the release, the US Dollar generally weakened against major currencies. Fifteen minutes after the data, AUDUSD was up +10 pips, EURUSD up +10 pips, GBPUSD up +18 pips, and NZDUSD up +9.3 pips. USDJPY moved down -20 pips, USDCAD down -6.0 pips, and USDCHF down -9.8 pips. Gold, XAUUSD, saw a significant move, rising +225 pips. Comparing these initial reactions to historical data, the +10 pips move in AUDUSD was above its median 1-hour move of 7 pips. EURUSD’s +10 pips move was slightly above its median of 9 pips. GBPUSD’s +18 pips move exceeded its median of 13 pips. NZDUSD’s +9.3 pips move was above its median of 7 pips. USDCAD’s -6.0 pips move was smaller than its median of 10 pips. USDCHF’s -9.8 pips move was above its median of 8 pips. USDJPY’s -20 pips move was notably larger than its median of 9 pips, placing it in the top-quarter of past releases. XAUUSD’s +225 pips move was substantially larger than its median of 30 pips, also placing it well into the top-quarter of historical reactions.