US Trade Balance - ForexCracked
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United States · Trade

US Trade Balance USD

Low impact Updated after every release
Next release Tue, Oct 6 12:30 UTC · consensus -81.515B · previous -88.576B  

What this release is

The US Trade Balance measures the difference between the total value of goods and services exported by the United States and the total value of goods and services imported. A trade surplus occurs when exports exceed imports, while a trade deficit indicates imports are greater than exports. This economic indicator is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, BEA, and the U.S. Census Bureau.

Forex traders monitor the Trade Balance as it reflects the flow of currency into and out of the United States. A persistent trade deficit can imply a greater demand for foreign currencies to pay for imports, potentially influencing the U.S. dollar’s valuation. Conversely, a trade surplus suggests higher demand for the U.S. dollar to purchase American exports. This data provides insights into international trade dynamics and can indirectly inform broader economic health assessments.

The market typically focuses on the headline figure of the Trade Balance report. While revisions to prior months’ data are included, they generally receive less attention unless they significantly alter the overall trend. Historically, this release has often been associated with a low impact on currency markets, meaning significant immediate price movements for the U.S. dollar have been less common after its publication.

How hard it hits, measured

124 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
9pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
16pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
88pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD3.8p5.6p9.0p16p
AUDUSD3.0p3.8p7.7p12p
GBPUSD4.3p6.8p13p23p
NZDUSD3.1p4.6p7.2p11p
USDCAD3.7p6.4p10p18p
USDCHF2.9p4.0p7.9p13p
USDJPY4.2p6.0p9.6p18p
XAUUSD15p16p32p66p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 24 of 40 cases · median -2.9p n=40 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 25 of 43 cases · median +3.9p n=43 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour higher in 7 of 11 cases · median +5.9p n=11 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Sep 3, 2026-88.576B-89.4B-73.3B-71.182B+13pStory
Sep 3, 2026-88.6B+13p
Aug 4, 2026-73.3B+1.1p
Aug 4, 2026-73.261B-67.134B-77.585B-77.647B+1.1p
Jul 7, 2026-77.585B-58.217B-55.881B-54.57B-6.9p
Jun 9, 2026-77.6B-59.013B-60.307B-56.585B+2.8p
May 5, 2026-54.6B-56.051B-57.347B-57.777B+4.7p
Apr 2, 2026-56.6B-62.538B-54.455B-54.677B+0.6p
Mar 12, 2026-55.0B-63.9B-70.311B-72.9B-3.9p
Feb 19, 2026-54.2B-43.223B-56.825B-53.044B-11p
Jan 29, 2026-54.2B-41.091B-29.35B-29.206B+1.2p
Jan 8, 2026-76.1B-56.327B-52.828B-48.137B-15p
Dec 11, 2025-63.9B-103.544B-59.55B-59.265B+25p
Nov 19, 2025-37.4B33.988B-78.311B-78.154B-24p
Sep 4, 2025-59.6B-173.298B-60.177B-59.086B+6.8p
Aug 5, 2025-75.1B-39.193B-71.517B-71.664B+15p
Jul 3, 2025-58.7B-101.325B-61.617B-60.257B-22p
Jun 5, 2025-66.7B-154.693B-140.498B-138.316B+60p
May 6, 2025-60.3B-145.146B-122.662B-123.195B+13p
Apr 3, 2025-133.0B-140.54B-131.382B-130.652B+7.2p
Mar 6, 2025-117.1B-91.55B-98.431B-98.062B+8.1p
Feb 5, 2025-124.7B-79.599B-78.193B-78.94B+8.4p
Jan 7, 2025-96.8B-79.529B-73.836B-73.615B-5.9p
Dec 5, 2024-73.836B-77.201B-84.359B-83.795B+34p

Showing the latest 24 of 124 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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