US Unemployment Rate comes in at 4.2% against 4.1% consensus

The US Unemployment Rate, released on October 2, 2026, came in at 4.2%. This figure was higher than the consensus forecast of 4.1% and also represented an increase from the previous rate of 4.1%. The actual print showed a 2.4% surprise when compared to the consensus expectation.

Following the release, market reactions were observed across several currency pairs. AUDUSD rose 23 pips one hour after the data, exceeding its median 1-hour move of 16 pips. EURUSD gained 21 pips, matching its median 1-hour move. GBPUSD increased by 21 pips, slightly below its median 1-hour move of 22 pips. NZDUSD saw a 12-pip rise, which was below its median 1-hour move of 16 pips. USDCAD fell 6.0 pips, a relatively small move compared to its median 1-hour move of 26 pips. USDCHF rose 14 pips, close to its median 1-hour move of 17 pips. USDJPY declined 15 pips, a relatively small move compared to its median 1-hour move of 26 pips. XAUUSD gained 88 pips, exceeding its median 1-hour move of 55 pips. Historically, the direction reliability on EURUSD after similar releases is 54%.