US Unemployment Rate - ForexCracked
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United States · Employment

US Unemployment Rate USD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Oct 2 12:30 UTC · consensus 4.1% · previous 4.1%  

What this release is

The US Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment. It is a key indicator of the health of the US labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, a division of the US Department of Labor, publishes this data monthly as part of its Employment Situation Summary.

Forex traders closely monitor the Unemployment Rate because it provides insight into the overall economic strength of the United States. A lower unemployment rate often suggests a robust economy, which can influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. Changes in the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates, driven by economic data like the unemployment rate, can significantly impact the valuation of the US Dollar against other currencies.

After its release, the headline unemployment rate figure typically receives immediate market attention. Revisions to previous months’ data are also scrutinized, as they can alter the perceived trend of the labor market. The market’s reaction can be High impact, often reflecting expectations for future economic conditions and central bank actions. This release frequently causes notable volatility in USD currency pairs shortly after publication.

How hard it hits, measured

126 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
21pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
42pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
175pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD19p17p21p42p
AUDUSD14p14p16p27p
GBPUSD17p20p22p49p
NZDUSD14p14p16p28p
USDCAD22p21p26p42p
USDCHF15p16p17p32p
USDJPY21p22p27p48p
XAUUSD53p52p56p129p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
Miss below consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=1 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=1 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Sep 4, 20264.1%4.1%4.1%-10p
Sep 4, 20264.1%-10p
Aug 7, 20264.1%+42p
Aug 7, 20264.1%4.2%4.2%+42p
Jul 2, 20264.2%4.2%4.3%
Jun 5, 20264.3%4.2%4.3%-50p
May 8, 20264.3%4.3%4.3%+14p
Apr 3, 20264.3%4.6%4.4%-11p
Mar 6, 20264.4%4.2%4.3%-6.4p
Feb 11, 20264.3%4.2%4.4%-36p
Jan 9, 20264.4%4.8%4.6%4.5%-5.0p
Dec 16, 20254.5%4.3%4.4%+14p
Nov 20, 20254.5%4.2%4.3%4.3%+30p
Sep 5, 20254.3%4.1%4.2%+22p
Aug 1, 20254.3%4%4.1%+175p
Jul 3, 20254.1%4.3%4.2%-22p
Jun 6, 20254.3%4%4.2%-31p
May 2, 20254.2%4.4%4.2%+14p
Apr 4, 20254.2%4.2%4.1%-53p
Mar 7, 20254.2%3.9%4%+9.5p
Feb 7, 20254.0%4%4.1%+7.4p
Jan 10, 20254.1%4.3%4.2%-45p
Dec 6, 20244.2%4.1%4.1%-1.5p
Nov 1, 20244.1%4.1%4.1%+11p

Showing the latest 24 of 126 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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