US Unemployment Rate preview: Consensus holds at 4.1%
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The US Unemployment Rate is scheduled for release on October 2, 2026, at 12:30 UTC. This is a high-impact event for USD pairs. Market consensus anticipates the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.1%, matching the previous month’s reading. This suggests analysts expect little change in the labor market’s headline unemployment figure.
Historically, this release has generated significant market movement. Across 123 releases since 2015, EURUSD has seen a median 1-hour move of 21 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 41+ pips. GBPUSD has shown a median 1-hour move of 22 pips, with top-quarter moves exceeding 48+ pips over 123 releases. USDCAD typically records a median 1-hour move of 26 pips, with top-quarter moves of 41+ pips over 123 releases. USDJPY has seen a median 1-hour move of 27 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 43+ pips over 121 releases. Gold, XAUUSD, has historically reacted with a median 1-hour move of 55 pips, and top-quarter moves of 126+ pips over 120 releases. The direction reliability for EURUSD after past releases stands at 54%.
Recent releases of the US Unemployment Rate have shown varied outcomes. The September 2026 print came in at 4.1%, matching the forecast, and EURUSD saw a -10 pip 1-hour move. In August 2026, the actual rate was 4.1% against a 4.2% forecast, leading to a +42 pip 1-hour move for EURUSD. The June 2026 release saw an actual 4.3% against a 4.2% forecast, with EURUSD moving -50 pips in one hour.