US Unemployment Rate preview: Consensus holds steady at 4.1%
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | — | — |
| USDJPY | — | — |
The US Unemployment Rate is scheduled for release on September 4, 2026, at 12:30 UTC. Market consensus anticipates the rate to hold steady at 4.1%, matching the previous reading. This high-impact release is a key indicator for the health of the US labor market and can influence Federal Reserve policy expectations, making any deviation from the forecast noteworthy.
Historically, this event has generated significant market movement. For EURUSD, the median 1-hour move after past releases has been 22 pips, with top-quarter releases seeing moves of 42+ pips across 123 events since 2015. USDJPY has shown a median 1-hour move of 27 pips, with top-quarter moves exceeding 43 pips over 121 releases. XAUUSD has experienced a median 1-hour move of 55 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 126+ pips over 120 events. USDCAD has a median 1-hour move of 26 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 41+ pips over 123 releases. Direction reliability on EURUSD has been 54%.
Recent releases have shown varied outcomes. The August 2026 print came in at 4.1%, matching the forecast of 4.2%, and was followed by a +42 pip 1-hour move in EURUSD. The July 2026 reading was 4.2%, aligning with its forecast. In June 2026, the actual rate was 4.3% against a 4.2% forecast, with EURUSD moving -50 pips in the hour following. The May 2026 release also saw an actual rate of 4.3%, matching the forecast.