Australia

Trade Balance AUD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Dec 3 00:30 UTC · consensus TBA  

What this release is

The Australian Trade Balance, published monthly by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, measures the net difference between the value of Australia’s exports and imports of goods and services. This release provides a snapshot of Australia’s international trade activity within the trade sector.

Forex traders monitor this data because a trade surplus, where exports exceed imports, indicates net foreign demand for Australian products. This can lead to an inflow of foreign currency, potentially increasing demand for the Australian dollar. Conversely, a trade deficit, where imports surpass exports, may suggest reduced demand for the currency.

The market typically focuses on the headline balance figure. Revisions to prior months’ data can also influence market sentiment. This release offers insights into Australia’s economic health and its external sector performance, contributing to broader Australian dollar valuation considerations.

How hard it hits, measured

124 releases · own feed
Typical AUDUSD move
5pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
10pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
33pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
AUDUSD2.8p3.2p5.1p10p
AUDCAD2.7p3.3p4.5p9.6p
AUDCHF2.3p2.6p5.1p8.7p
AUDJPY3.5p4.9p7.4p14p
AUDNZD2.3p3.5p6.0p12p
EURAUD4.6p5.7p9.1p20p
GBPAUD5.7p6.8p11p21p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus AUDUSD closed the hour lower in 23 of 43 cases · median -1.5p n=43 live
Miss below consensus AUDUSD closed the hour lower in 28 of 52 cases · median -0.7p n=52 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=4 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toAUDUSD 1h
Oct 1, 20260.495B-0.245B1.923B1.351B-4.3p—
Sep 3, 20261.923B0.336B1.929B2.341B-1.5p—
Aug 6, 20261.929B0.932B-3.018B-2.367B+2.3pStory
Jul 2, 2026-3.018B2.106B1.791B1.383B+5.1p—
Jun 4, 20261.791B-0.312B-1.841B-1.024B-4.2p—
May 7, 2026-1.841B4.403B5.686B5.026B-0.7p—
Apr 2, 20265.686B3.003B2.631B2.258B-25p—
Mar 5, 20262.631B3.483B3.373B—+2.1p—
Feb 5, 20263.373B3.725B2.936B2.597B-4.7p—
Jan 8, 20262.936B4.725B4.385B4.353B+5.5p—
Dec 4, 20254.385B4.418B3.938B3.707B-1.7p—
Nov 6, 20253.938B4.72B1.825B1.111B-3.5p—
Oct 2, 20251.825B5.065B7.31B6.612B+3.7p—
Sep 4, 20257.31B4.723B5.365B5.366B-4.7p—
Aug 7, 20255.365B5.869B2.238B1.604B+5.7p—
Jul 3, 20252.238B6.811B5.413B4.859B-12p—
Jun 5, 20255.413B6.421B6.9B6.892B-7.0p—
May 1, 20256.9B3.434B2.968B2.852B+4.5p—
Apr 3, 20252.968B4.113B5.62B5.156B+8.9p—
Mar 6, 20255.62B4.193B5.085B4.924B+2.9p—
Feb 6, 20255.085B8.479B7.079B6.792B-2.9p—
Jan 9, 20257.079B5.267B5.953B5.67B-6.9p—
Dec 5, 20245.953B7.121B4.609B4.532B+3.8p—
Nov 7, 20244.609B4.263B5.644B5.284B+4.8p—

Showing the latest 24 of 123 tracked releases.

Reaction = AUDUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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