Core CPI m/m - ForexCracked
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Canada

Core CPI m/m CAD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Mon, Oct 19 12:30 UTC · consensus 0.3% · previous 0.1%  

What this release is

Canada’s Core Consumer Price Index month-over-month, published by Statistics Canada, measures the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of consumer goods and services, excluding volatile components such as food and energy. This monthly release provides insight into the prices sector of the Canadian economy.

Forex traders monitor Core CPI m/m as a key indicator of underlying inflation in Canada. Persistent trends in inflation can influence the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates. After past releases, shifts in expectations for future interest rate adjustments have sometimes impacted the Canadian dollar.

This monthly release often draws attention to its headline figure. Market participants also review any revisions to previous data, as these can provide additional context for the current economic picture. After past releases, unexpected deviations from forecasts have typically led to a medium impact on Canadian dollar currency pairs.

How hard it hits, measured

123 releases · own feed
Typical USDCAD move
15pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
33pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
119pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
USDCAD12p15p15p33p
AUDCAD8.7p8.9p13p21p
CADCHF6.9p7.0p9.9p18p
CADJPY9.4p12p16p29p
EURCAD17p16p22p37p
GBPCAD19p20p24p46p
NZDCAD9.2p9.7p13p21p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus USDCAD closed the hour higher in 23 of 44 cases · median +3.3p n=44 live
Miss below consensus USDCAD closed the hour higher in 27 of 47 cases · median +2.9p n=47 live
In line within the surprise band USDCAD closed the hour lower in 9 of 18 cases · median -0.1p n=18 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toUSDCAD 1h
Sep 14, 20260.1%0.1%0.2%—+18p—
Aug 17, 20260.2%0%0.1%—-2.4p—
Jul 20, 20260.1%0.5%0.6%—+4.1p—
Jun 22, 20260.6%0.4%0.2%—+22p—
May 19, 20260.2%0.2%0.2%—+13p—
Apr 20, 20260.2%0.2%0.4%—-11p—
Mar 16, 20260.4%0.4%0.2%—-3.9p—
Feb 17, 20260.2%0%-0.4%—+19p—
Jan 19, 2026-0.4%-0.5%-0.1%—-4.8p—
Dec 15, 2025-0.1%0.4%0.6%—+11p—
Nov 17, 20250.6%0.3%0.2%—+9.4p—
Oct 21, 20250.2%-0.1%0%—-8.3p—
Sep 16, 20250%0.1%0.1%—-12p—
Aug 19, 20250.1%0.2%0.1%—+31p—
Jul 15, 20250.1%0.1%0.6%—-15p—
Jun 24, 20250.6%0.3%0.5%—-10p—
May 20, 20250.5%0.5%0.1%—-29p—
Apr 15, 20250.1%0.7%0.7%—-2.9p—
Mar 18, 20250.7%0.1%0.4%—-13p—
Feb 18, 20250.4%0.1%-0.3%—-8.1p—
Jan 21, 2025-0.3%-0.6%-0.1%—-7.4p—
Dec 17, 2024-0.1%0.2%0.4%—-4.6p—
Nov 19, 20240.4%0.2%0%—-29p—
Oct 15, 20240%0%-0.1%—-8.1p—

Showing the latest 24 of 123 tracked releases.

Reaction = USDCAD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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