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Canada

Core Retail Sales m/m CAD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Nov 20 13:30 UTC · consensus -0.2% · previous 1.2%  

What this release is

Core Retail Sales month over month for Canada measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding volatile items like motor vehicles and gasoline. This consumer sector data is published monthly by Statistics Canada, the official source for this information.

Forex traders monitor this release as a key indicator of consumer spending and overall economic health. Strong retail sales can suggest robust economic growth and potential inflationary pressures. The Bank of Canada considers such economic trends when evaluating monetary policy adjustments, which can influence the Canadian dollar’s valuation.

After past releases, market attention typically focuses on the headline percentage change. Revisions to prior month’s data can also draw interest. This monthly report provides insights into consumer demand, a fundamental component of the economy, and is generally considered a significant indicator for the Canadian dollar.

How hard it hits, measured

124 releases · own feed
Typical USDCAD move
12pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
24pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
109pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
USDCAD6.5p7.5p12p24p
AUDCAD4.4p6.5p9.6p21p
CADCHF4.0p5.0p8.0p14p
CADJPY5.5p6.6p12p20p
EURCAD7.3p9.1p15p30p
GBPCAD8.8p11p18p34p
NZDCAD4.3p5.6p8.7p19p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus USDCAD closed the hour lower in 33 of 60 cases · median -2.4p n=60 live
Miss below consensus USDCAD closed the hour higher in 33 of 46 cases · median +7.8p n=46 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=4 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toUSDCAD 1h
Oct 23, 20261.2%0.3%-0.7%-0.8%-9.1p—
Sep 24, 2026-0.7%0%0.5%—+15p—
Aug 21, 20260.5%-0.3%1.2%—+8.2p—
Jul 23, 20261.2%0.3%0.1%0%+0.9p—
Jun 19, 20260.1%-0.1%1.4%1.2%+15p—
May 22, 20261.4%-0.1%0.5%0.6%-6.8p—
Apr 24, 20260.5%0.2%0.8%1%+9.5p—
Mar 20, 20260.8%-0.2%0.1%0%+2.7p—
Feb 20, 20260.1%0.4%1.7%1.6%+14p—
Jan 23, 20261.7%-0.1%-0.6%—-0.8p—
Dec 19, 2025-0.6%0.2%0.2%-0.1%-8.1p—
Nov 21, 20250.2%0.4%0.7%0.8%+11p—
Oct 23, 20250.7%-0.1%-1.2%-1.1%-5.9p—
Sep 19, 2025-1.2%0.4%1.9%2.2%-2.4p—
Aug 22, 20251.9%0%-0.2%-0.3%+4.8p—
Jul 24, 2025-0.2%0.7%-0.3%—+15p—
Jun 20, 2025-0.3%-0.2%-0.7%-0.8%+4.9p—
May 23, 2025-0.7%0.6%0.5%0.6%-14p—
Apr 25, 20250.5%-1.1%0.2%0.1%-4.5p—
Mar 21, 20250.2%1.6%2.7%2.9%+24p—
Feb 21, 20252.7%-0.3%-0.7%—-9.3p—
Jan 23, 2025-0.7%-0.7%0.1%-0.1%-15p—
Dec 20, 20240.1%-0.5%0.9%1.1%-1.0p—
Nov 22, 20240.9%0.6%-0.7%-0.8%-18p—

Showing the latest 24 of 124 tracked releases.

Reaction = USDCAD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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