Canada GDP m/m - ForexCracked
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Canada · Gdp

Canada GDP m/m CAD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Tue, Sep 29 12:30 UTC · consensus 0% · previous 0.3%  

What this release is

Canada’s Gross Domestic Product, month over month, measures the change in the total value of all goods and services produced by the Canadian economy during the reported month. This economic output metric is a primary indicator of the nation’s economic health and growth. Statistics Canada compiles and publishes this data.

Forex traders monitor Canada’s GDP release as it provides insight into the underlying strength of the Canadian economy. Robust economic growth, as indicated by a rising GDP, can influence expectations for the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decisions. Stronger economic performance may suggest a greater likelihood of interest rate increases, which can potentially support the Canadian Dollar. Conversely, weaker GDP figures might lead to expectations of stable or lower interest rates, which could weigh on the currency.

Market participants typically focus on the headline month over month percentage change for immediate insights into economic momentum. Revisions to previous months’ data are also observed, as they can provide a more complete picture of economic trends. This release is generally considered a Medium impact event for the Canadian Dollar. After past releases, market movements have reflected the degree to which the reported figures align with or diverge from consensus expectations.

How hard it hits, measured

154 releases · own feed
Typical USDCAD move
16pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
29pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
124pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
USDCAD8.3p10p16p29p
AUDCAD5.4p6.6p10p22p
CADCHF4.5p5.3p7.9p16p
CADJPY7.9p8.2p12p20p
EURCAD9.2p12p15p33p
GBPCAD9.9p12p19p43p
NZDCAD4.5p6.6p12p21p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus USDCAD closed the hour lower in 32 of 52 cases · median -4.4p n=52 live
Miss below consensus USDCAD closed the hour higher in 30 of 46 cases · median +10p n=46 live
In line within the surprise band USDCAD closed the hour lower in 6 of 10 cases · median -5.3p n=10 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toUSDCAD 1h
Aug 28, 20260.3%0.1%0.3%0.0p
Aug 28, 20260.0p
Jul 31, 20260.3%0.2%0.5%0.6%-26p
Jul 31, 2026-26p
Jun 30, 20260.5%0%-0.1%-16p
May 29, 2026-0.1%0%0.2%+2.9p
May 1, 2026+0.3p
Apr 30, 20260.2%0%0.1%+0.7p
Mar 31, 20260.1%0%0.2%-6.2p
Feb 27, 20260.2%0%0%-0.6p
Jan 30, 20260%0%-0.3%+11p
Dec 23, 2025-0.3%0%0.2%+17p
Nov 28, 20250.2%-0.1%-0.3%-0.1%-17p
Oct 31, 2025-0.3%0%0.2%0.3%+12p
Sep 26, 20250.2%-0.7%-0.1%-4.9p
Aug 29, 2025-0.1%0%-0.1%+19p
Jul 31, 2025-0.1%0.1%-0.1%-5.3p
Jun 27, 2025-0.1%0.1%0.1%0.2%+0.7p
May 30, 20250.1%0.1%-0.2%-14p
May 1, 2025-12p
Apr 30, 2025-0.2%0.3%0.4%+0.4p
Mar 28, 20250.4%0.1%0.2%0.3%-27p
Feb 28, 20250.2%0%-0.2%+17p
Jan 31, 2025-0.2%0.1%0.3%+61p

Showing the latest 24 of 154 tracked releases.

Reaction = USDCAD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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