Canada GDP m/m comes in at 0.3% against 0.1% consensus

Canada’s Gross Domestic Product month over month (GDP m/m) for August 2026 was reported at 0.3%, exceeding the consensus estimate of 0.1%. The previous month’s figure was also 0.3%. This actual print represented a 200.0% surprise relative to the market’s expectations.

Following the release, the Canadian dollar showed a mixed and generally muted reaction against major currencies. After one hour, USDCAD saw no change, while EURCAD rose 2.1 pips and NZDCAD gained 4.7 pips. CADCHF strengthened by 1.7 pips against the Swiss franc, and GBPCAD saw a minor decline of 0.6 pips. AUDCAD increased by 2.5 pips, and CADJPY rose 1.8 pips. These observed 1-hour movements were small when compared to historical median moves, which typically range from 8 pips for CADCHF to 19 pips for GBPCAD. For USDCAD, the direction reliability after past releases has been 66%.