Canada GDP Preview: Consensus points to slower growth
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| USDCAD | — | — |
Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) month over month data for August is scheduled for release on August 28 at 12:30 UTC. The market consensus forecasts a 0.2% expansion, a deceleration from the prior month’s 0.3% growth. This release carries a High impact rating for the Canadian Dollar, as GDP figures are a key indicator of economic health and can influence the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy outlook.
Historically, this release has generated notable volatility across CAD pairs. After past releases, USDCAD has seen a median 1-hour move of 16 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 30+ pips over 152 releases since 2015. Direction reliability on USDCAD has been 66%. GBPCAD has observed a median 1-hour move of 19 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 43+ pips. EURCAD has shown a median 1-hour move of 15 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 34+ pips. CADJPY has seen a median 1-hour move of 12 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 21+ pips. NZDCAD also recorded a median 1-hour move of 12 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 21+ pips. AUDCAD has had a median 1-hour move of 10 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 22+ pips. CADCHF has experienced a median 1-hour move of 8 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 16+ pips.
Recent releases have shown varied outcomes. The July 2026 actual came in at 0.3%, leading to a -26 pips move in USDCAD. In June 2026, the actual was 0.5%, and USDCAD moved -16 pips. The May 2026 reading was -0.1%, followed by a +2.9 pips move in USDCAD.