Japan Unemployment Rate - ForexCracked
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Japan · Employment

Japan Unemployment Rate JPY

Low impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Oct 1 23:30 UTC · consensus 2.4% · previous 2.4%  

What this release is

The Japan Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the labor force that is actively seeking employment but unable to find it. This key indicator of labor market health is published monthly by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, MIC, providing a snapshot of Japan’s employment situation.

Forex traders monitor this data for its implications on the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy. A sustained trend in unemployment can influence the central bank’s decisions regarding interest rates and other policy tools, which in turn affects the Japanese Yen’s valuation. Changes in the labor market reflect broader economic conditions, impacting inflation expectations.

The market typically focuses on the headline unemployment rate. Revisions to prior months’ data can also draw attention, providing a clearer picture of labor market trends. While its typical impact rating is low, significant deviations from expectations or sustained trends can still prompt market reactions, particularly when viewed alongside other economic indicators.

How hard it hits, measured

125 releases · own feed
Typical USDJPY move
7pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
14pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
60pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
USDJPY1.8p2.7p7.2p14p
AUDJPY1.8p2.4p7.4p12p
CADJPY1.5p2.3p5.0p11p
CHFJPY2.1p2.7p6.8p12p
EURJPY1.9p2.8p6.8p13p
GBPJPY2.5p3.6p8.6p16p
NZDJPY1.7p2.1p5.5p12p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus USDJPY closed the hour higher in 23 of 45 cases · median +0.7p n=45 live
Miss below consensus USDJPY closed the hour lower in 20 of 36 cases · median -2.6p n=36 live
In line within the surprise band USDJPY closed the hour lower in 15 of 26 cases · median -1.1p n=26 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toUSDJPY 1h
Aug 27, 20262.4%2.5%2.5%—+0.9p—
Jul 30, 20262.5%2.5%2.5%—+36p—
Jun 29, 20262.5%2.6%2.5%———
May 28, 20262.5%2.7%2.7%—+4.0p—
May 15, 2026————+9.2p—
Apr 27, 20262.7%2.6%2.6%—-5.8p—
Mar 30, 20262.6%2.7%2.7%———
Mar 2, 20262.7%2.6%2.6%—+11p—
Feb 13, 2026————+4.0p—
Jan 29, 20262.6%2.4%2.6%—+50p—
Dec 25, 20252.6%2.4%2.6%—+42p—
Nov 27, 20252.6%2.4%2.6%—+8.8p—
Oct 30, 20252.6%2.6%2.6%—-19p—
Oct 2, 20252.6%2.4%2.3%—+23p—
Aug 28, 20252.3%2.5%2.5%—+4.5p—
Jul 31, 20252.5%2.5%2.5%—-9.1p—
Jun 26, 20252.5%2.5%2.5%—+30p—
May 29, 20252.5%2.5%2.5%—-23p—
May 1, 20252.5%2.5%2.4%—+35p—
Mar 31, 20252.4%2.5%2.5%—-11p—
Mar 3, 20252.5%2.5%2.4%2.5%-2.2p—
Jan 30, 20252.4%2.5%2.5%—-15p—
Dec 26, 20242.5%2.5%2.5%—+1.3p—
Nov 28, 20242.5%2.5%2.4%—-37p—

Showing the latest 24 of 124 tracked releases.

Reaction = USDJPY move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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