Industrial Production m/m - ForexCracked
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Japan

Industrial Production m/m JPY

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Oct 29 23:50 UTC · consensus TBA  

What this release is

Japan’s Industrial Production month-over-month data, published by meti.go.jp, measures the total output of the nation’s factories, mines, and utilities. This monthly release offers insight into the health of the business sector, reflecting changes in the volume of goods produced.

Forex traders monitor this release as a key indicator of economic activity and growth in Japan. Strong industrial production can signal economic expansion, which may influence expectations for the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy. Shifts in these policy expectations can affect the Japanese Yen’s valuation.

The market typically focuses on the headline month-over-month change. Revisions to prior months’ data are also observed for context, providing a fuller picture of trends. This series is released monthly and typically garners a medium level of market attention after its publication.

How hard it hits, measured

246 releases · own feed
Typical USDJPY move
5pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
14pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
65pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
USDJPY1.2p3.0p5.3p14p
AUDJPY1.6p3.0p6.6p11p
CADJPY1.0p2.1p4.8p9.0p
CHFJPY1.4p2.9p5.5p12p
EURJPY1.6p3.2p7.3p13p
GBPJPY1.8p4.4p7.4p15p
NZDJPY1.4p2.3p5.3p9.3p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus USDJPY closed the hour higher in 56 of 94 cases · median +2.2p n=94 live
Miss below consensus USDJPY closed the hour higher in 50 of 92 cases · median +0.7p n=92 live
In line within the surprise band USDJPY closed the hour lower in 6 of 11 cases · median -0.6p n=11 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toUSDJPY 1h
Oct 15, 2026————+13p—
Sep 14, 2026-0.2%0.1%0.1%—-3.6p—
Aug 30, 20260.1%1.1%1.9%—-9.9p—
Aug 17, 20261.9%1.3%1.3%—-4.8p—
Jul 30, 20261.3%-0.5%0.1%—+48p—
Jul 14, 20260.1%0.5%0.5%—-0.8p—
Jun 29, 20260.5%0.7%0.5%———
Jun 12, 20260.5%0.8%0.8%—+2.9p—
May 28, 20260.8%-0.2%-0.4%—+2.3p—
May 19, 2026-0.4%-0.5%-0.5%—+4.7p—
Apr 29, 2026-0.5%2.5%-2%—+0.2p—
Apr 14, 2026-2%-2.1%-2.1%—+2.1p—
Mar 30, 2026-2.1%1.1%4.3%———
Mar 19, 20264.3%2.2%2.2%———
Feb 26, 20262.2%1.2%-0.1%—-12p—
Feb 16, 2026-0.1%—-0.1%—+10p—
Jan 29, 2026-0.1%—-2.7%—+42p—
Jan 19, 2026-2.7%—-2.6%—-4.8p—
Dec 25, 2025-2.6%—1.5%—+31p—
Dec 12, 20251.5%—1.4%—+5.3p—
Nov 27, 20251.4%1.6%2.6%—+16p—
Nov 17, 20252.6%2.2%2.2%—-0.3p—
Oct 30, 20252.2%-0.4%-1.5%—+1.9p—
Oct 15, 2025-1.5%-1.2%-1.2%—-4.7p—

Showing the latest 24 of 200 tracked releases.

Reaction = USDJPY move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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