UK Average Earnings Index 3m/y - ForexCracked
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United Kingdom · Employment

UK Average Earnings Index 3m/y GBP

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Tue, Oct 20 06:00 UTC · consensus 4.5% · previous 4.3%  

What this release is

The UK Average Earnings Index 3m/y measures the average change in wages and salaries for employees in the United Kingdom over a three-month period compared to the same period a year earlier. This report provides insight into wage inflation pressures within the UK economy. It is published by the Office for National Statistics, ONS.

Forex traders monitor this release closely because wage growth is a significant factor in inflation. Higher wage growth can contribute to increased consumer spending and inflation, potentially influencing the Bank of England’s monetary policy decisions. After past releases showing stronger wage growth, market participants have sometimes anticipated a more hawkish stance from the central bank, affecting the British Pound. Conversely, weaker wage growth can suggest less inflationary pressure.

The market typically focuses on the headline year-over-year percentage change for this series. Revisions to prior periods are also observed for their implications on trends. The release usually occurs alongside other key employment data, and its impact is generally considered Medium. Traders assess this data point in conjunction with other economic indicators to form a comprehensive view of the UK labor market and its broader economic implications.

How hard it hits, measured

123 releases · own feed
Typical GBPUSD move
14pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
26pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
81pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
GBPUSD6.4p8.6p14p26p
EURGBP3.5p4.1p7.4p13p
GBPAUD8.9p12p19p37p
GBPCAD8.3p8.7p14p30p
GBPCHF5.5p5.8p13p22p
GBPJPY9.2p12p15p33p
GBPNZD10p12p21p37p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus GBPUSD closed the hour higher in 23 of 44 cases · median +0.2p n=44 live
Miss below consensus GBPUSD closed the hour lower in 22 of 40 cases · median -3.2p n=40 live
In line within the surprise band GBPUSD closed the hour higher in 8 of 10 cases · median +9.2p n=10 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toGBPUSD 1h
Jul 21, 20264.3%4.6%4.4%—+4.5p—
Jun 18, 20264.4%4.5%4.1%4.4%+13p—
May 19, 20264.1%5.2%3.8%3.9%-17p—
Apr 21, 20263.8%—3.9%4.1%+2.1p—
Mar 19, 20263.9%—4.2%4.2%+2.3p—
Feb 17, 20264.2%—4.7%4.6%+4.4p—
Jan 20, 20264.7%—4.7%4.8%-7.0p—
Dec 16, 20254.7%—4.8%4.9%+2.5p—
Nov 11, 20254.8%—5%5%-13p—
Oct 14, 20255%4.7%4.7%4.8%-60p—
Sep 16, 20254.7%—4.6%4.6%+10p—
Aug 12, 20254.6%—5%5%+10p—
Jul 17, 20255%4.9%5.3%5.4%-9.9p—
Jun 10, 20255.3%5.8%5.5%5.6%-58p—
May 13, 20255.5%—5.8%5.8%-1.3p—
Apr 15, 2025————-6.5p—
Mar 20, 20255.8%6.3%6%6.1%-14p—
Feb 18, 20256%6%5.6%5.5%+14p—
Jan 21, 20255.6%—5.2%5.2%-14p—
Dec 17, 20245.2%5.1%4.3%4.4%+28p—
Nov 12, 20244.3%4.4%3.8%3.9%-10p—
Oct 15, 20243.8%—4%4.1%+24p—
Sep 10, 20244%—4.5%4.5%-12p—
Aug 13, 20244.5%5.4%5.7%—+24p—

Showing the latest 24 of 121 tracked releases.

Reaction = GBPUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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