Core CPI n.s.a. m/m - ForexCracked
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United States

Core CPI n.s.a. m/m USD

High impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Sep 11 12:30 UTC · consensus TBA · previous 0.1%  

What this release is

Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) non-seasonally adjusted month-over-month measures the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of consumer goods and services, excluding the volatile food and energy components. This specific reading reflects the price change from the previous month without seasonal adjustments. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, an agency of the United States government, publishes this data.

Forex traders closely monitor Core CPI as a key indicator of inflation within the United States economy. Inflation trends significantly influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates. Higher or lower than expected inflation readings can lead to market participants adjusting their expectations for future interest rate changes, which in turn can affect the valuation of the US Dollar against other currencies.

After past releases, market attention often centers on the headline month-over-month percentage change. Revisions to previous months’ data, when present, can also influence market reactions. This monthly release is typically absorbed by traders as part of a broader economic picture, contributing to the overall assessment of the US economic outlook and its implications for the US Dollar.

How hard it hits, measured

121 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
21pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
40pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
187pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD15p18p21p40p
AUDUSD14p14p15p34p
GBPUSD14p17p22p42p
NZDUSD13p13p15p31p
USDCAD12p14p15p28p
USDCHF11p13p16p30p
USDJPY16p19p22p40p
XAUUSD44p51p52p108p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
Miss below consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Aug 12, 20260.1%0%+7.2p
Jul 14, 20260%0.3%+37p
Jun 10, 20260.3%0.4%+11p
May 12, 20260.4%0.3%-0.9p
Apr 10, 20260.3%0.4%+20p
Mar 11, 20260.4%0.4%-13p
Feb 13, 20260.4%0%+8.8p
Jan 13, 20260%0.3%+17p
Dec 18, 20250.3%+10p
Oct 24, 20250.3%0.3%+21p
Sep 11, 20250.3%0.2%+44p
Aug 12, 20250.2%0.3%+21p
Jul 15, 20250.3%0.2%+1.7p
Jun 11, 20250.2%0.3%+26p
May 13, 20250.3%0.2%+29p
Apr 10, 20250.2%0.4%+18p
Mar 12, 20250.4%0.6%-0.8p
Feb 12, 20250.6%0%-19p
Jan 15, 20250%0.1%+38p
Dec 11, 20240.1%0.2%-6.3p
Nov 13, 20240.2%0.3%-5.0p
Oct 10, 20240.3%0.3%+13p
Sep 11, 20240.3%0.1%-26p
Aug 14, 20240.1%0.1%-0.8p

Showing the latest 24 of 121 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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