Caixin Manufacturing PMI comes in at 50.9 against 51.4 consensus

The Caixin Manufacturing PMI for China was reported at 50.9. This figure came in below the consensus expectation of 51.4 and was also lower than the previous reading of 51.7. The actual print represented a -1.0% surprise compared to the consensus forecast.

Following the release, USDCNH moved -1.8 pips after 5 minutes and -2.1 pips after 15 minutes. Historically, USDCNH has shown a median 1-hour move of 14 pips after similar releases, with top-quarter moves exceeding 20 pips. These historical figures are based on two releases since 2015. The observed market reaction so far is small relative to the typical moves seen after past releases. Directional reliability statistics are not yet available for this event.