CPI m/m preview: Canada set for July inflation data
| Pair | Now | Since publish |
|---|---|---|
| USDCAD | — | — |
Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) month-over-month data is scheduled for release on 2026-07-20 at 12:30 UTC. The market consensus anticipates a reading of -0.2%, a notable shift from the previous month’s 1.0%. This high-impact release is closely watched for its implications on the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy outlook.
Historically, this release has generated significant volatility across CAD pairs. After past releases, EURCAD has seen a median 1-hour move of 24 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 42+ pips. GBPCAD has experienced a median 1-hour move of 25 pips, with top-quarter moves exceeding 47 pips. CADJPY typically sees a median 1-hour move of 16 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 29+ pips. USDCAD has a median 1-hour move of 17 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 35+ pips. The direction reliability on USDCAD after past releases stands at 49%.
Recent CPI prints show varied outcomes. The June 2026 release came in at 1% against a forecast of 0.2%, followed by a +22 pips move on USDCAD. In May 2026, the actual was 0.4% versus a 0.8% forecast, with USDCAD moving +13 pips. April 2026 saw 0.9% against a 0.5% forecast, leading to a -11 pips move on USDCAD.