CPI y/y (BRL) comes in at 4.44% against 4.89% consensus

The Brazilian annual Consumer Price Index, CPI y/y, was released today at 4.44%. This figure came in below the consensus estimate of 4.89%. The previous reading was 4.64%. The actual print represented a -9.2% surprise compared to the consensus forecast.

Following the release, USDBRL moved -43 pips within five minutes. Fifteen minutes after the data, USDBRL was trading -34 pips from its pre-release level. For context, the median one-hour move for USDBRL after past CPI y/y releases has been 114 pips. Top-quarter releases have seen moves of 124 pips or more. The measured moves so far are smaller than these historical benchmarks. Directional reliability statistics are not yet available for this series.