Retail Sales m/m (BRL) comes in at 0.1% against -0.5% consensus

Brazil’s Retail Sales month over month registered 0.1%, significantly exceeding the consensus expectation of -0.5%. This print followed the previous month’s figure of -1.5%. The release showed a 120.0% surprise relative to the consensus forecast.

Following the release, USDBRL moved +70 pips within 5 minutes and +121 pips within 15 minutes. For context, the median 1-hour move for USDBRL after past releases has been 10 pips. Releases in the top quarter have historically seen moves of 10+ pips. Directional reliability statistics are not yet available for this series.