Retail Sales y/y (BRL) comes in at 0.4% against 1.8% consensus

Brazil’s Retail Sales year over year came in at 0.4% for the period. This figure was below the consensus expectation of 1.8%. The previous month’s reading was 1%. The actual print represented a -77.8% surprise compared to the analyst consensus.

Following the release, USDBRL moved +70 pips within five minutes. Fifteen minutes after the data published, USDBRL was up +121 pips. This measured reaction is notably larger than the typical moves observed. For context, the median one-hour move for USDBRL after past releases has been 10 pips, with top-quarter releases moving 10+ pips. Directional reliability statistics are not yet available for this series.