RMPI m/m - ForexCracked
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Canada

RMPI m/m CAD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Oct 22 12:30 UTC · consensus 1.4% · previous 3.1%  

What this release is

The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) month over month measures the change in prices paid by Canadian manufacturers for raw materials. This data series tracks price movements in the raw materials sector, providing insight into early-stage production costs. Statistics Canada, the national statistics office, publishes this report monthly.

Forex traders monitor the RMPI as an early indicator of potential inflationary pressures within the Canadian economy. Rising raw material costs can precede increases in producer and eventually consumer prices. Such trends can influence the Bank of Canada’s outlook on monetary policy, as the central bank considers inflation in its interest rate decisions. Shifts in policy expectations can affect the Canadian dollar’s valuation.

The market typically gives this release a medium impact rating. Traders generally focus on the headline month over month figure upon its release to gauge immediate price trends. Revisions to prior data points can also draw attention, as they refine the overall picture of raw material price movements. After past releases, market reactions have reflected these factors.

How hard it hits, measured

123 releases · own feed
Typical USDCAD move
10pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
17pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
72pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
USDCAD4.0p5.4p9.8p17p
AUDCAD3.5p4.5p8.4p13p
CADCHF2.5p3.2p5.3p12p
CADJPY4.1p6.4p9.5p17p
EURCAD4.9p7.6p9.8p21p
GBPCAD6.3p7.9p15p23p
NZDCAD3.1p5.1p7.7p15p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus USDCAD closed the hour higher in 31 of 60 cases · median +0.4p n=60 live
Miss below consensus USDCAD closed the hour higher in 28 of 48 cases · median +5.8p n=48 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=1 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toUSDCAD 1h
Sep 17, 20263.1%-0.5%-2.2%-2.1%+5.3p—
Aug 20, 2026-2.2%-2.4%-6.9%-6.7%-4.5p—
Jul 24, 2026-6.9%3%0.7%0.5%+12p—
Jun 18, 20260.7%-1.5%2.6%—+5.4p—
May 22, 20262.6%2.6%12%11.9%-6.8p—
Apr 23, 202612%0.1%0.6%0.9%+4.8p—
Mar 20, 20260.6%5.9%7.7%—+2.7p—
Feb 20, 20267.7%0.1%0.5%0.3%+14p—
Jan 21, 20260.5%-0.4%0.3%0.6%-2.5p—
Dec 22, 20250.3%-0.1%1.6%—-8.5p—
Nov 20, 20251.6%-1.2%1.7%—-14p—
Oct 20, 20251.7%0.7%-0.6%-0.8%-4.0p—
Sep 22, 2025-0.6%1.2%0.3%—-13p—
Aug 21, 20250.3%2.1%2.7%2.8%+5.7p—
Jul 21, 20252.7%0.6%-0.4%-0.7%+5.9p—
Jun 20, 2025-0.4%-0.8%-3%-3.3%+4.9p—
May 22, 2025-3%-1.1%-1%-0.7%+12p—
Apr 22, 2025-1%0.3%0.3%—-4.3p—
Mar 20, 20250.3%0.5%3.7%3.5%+17p—
Feb 20, 20253.7%0.5%1.3%—-6.2p—
Jan 22, 20251.3%1.4%-0.5%-0.1%+23p—
Dec 23, 2024-0.5%6.1%3.8%4%+5.8p—
Nov 21, 20243.8%-4.9%-3.1%-3.2%-14p—
Oct 22, 2024-3.1%-0.1%-3.1%-3%-8.6p—

Showing the latest 24 of 123 tracked releases.

Reaction = USDCAD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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