Japan National Core CPI y/y - ForexCracked
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Japan · Inflation

Japan National Core CPI y/y JPY

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Sep 17 23:30 UTC · consensus 2.2% · previous 1.8%  

What this release is

Japan National Core CPI y/y measures the year over year change in the consumer price index for Japan, excluding fresh food prices. This metric reflects the average change over time in the prices paid by urban households for a market basket of consumer goods and services. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications publishes this data.

Forex traders closely monitor Japan’s National Core CPI as a key indicator of inflation trends. Sustained shifts in inflation can influence the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decisions. Higher than expected inflation, for instance, has historically led to speculation about potential policy tightening, which can strengthen the Japanese Yen. Conversely, persistently low inflation or deflationary pressures have often supported expectations of continued accommodative policy, potentially weakening the JPY.

The market typically focuses on the headline year over year percentage change for this release. While revisions to prior months’ data are sometimes included, the initial reading often drives the immediate market reaction. The release occurs on a consistent monthly schedule, providing regular insights into Japan’s price stability environment. After past releases, significant deviations from consensus expectations have often resulted in notable JPY volatility.

How hard it hits, measured

126 releases · own feed
Typical USDJPY move
7pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
11pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
50pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
USDJPY2.0p2.4p7.0p11p
AUDJPY1.7p2.7p6.2p11p
CADJPY1.4p2.4p5.0p9.8p
CHFJPY1.8p2.5p6.9p11p
EURJPY2.1p3.1p7.6p13p
GBPJPY2.6p3.6p9.0p15p
NZDJPY1.5p2.1p4.8p10p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus USDJPY closed the hour higher in 38 of 62 cases · median +3.5p n=62 live
Miss below consensus USDJPY closed the hour higher in 24 of 34 cases · median +4.7p n=34 live
In line within the surprise band USDJPY closed the hour higher in 9 of 12 cases · median +3.0p n=12 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toUSDJPY 1h
Aug 20, 20261.8%2.1%1.6%+11p
Aug 20, 2026+11p
Aug 7, 2026+5.0p
Aug 7, 2026+5.0p
Jul 23, 2026+4.7p
Jul 23, 20261.6%1.2%1.4%+4.7pStory
Jun 18, 20261.4%1.2%1.4%-9.7p
May 21, 20261.4%1.4%1.8%
Apr 23, 20261.8%1.3%1.6%-1.8p
Mar 23, 20261.6%2%2%
Feb 19, 20262%2.5%2.4%+21p
Jan 22, 20262.4%2.8%3%+7.7p
Dec 18, 20253%2.8%3%+9.9p
Nov 20, 20253%3%2.9%+6.1p
Oct 23, 20252.9%2.8%2.7%-8.4p
Sep 18, 20252.7%3%3.1%+15p
Aug 21, 20253.1%3%3.3%-3.7p
Jul 17, 20253.3%3.5%3.7%+21p
Jun 19, 20253.7%3.4%3.5%-2.9p
May 22, 20253.5%3.2%3.2%-5.0p
Apr 17, 20253.2%3%3%-6.3p
Mar 20, 20253%3%3.2%+14p
Feb 20, 20253.2%2.8%3%+50p
Jan 23, 20253%2.8%2.7%+14p

Showing the latest 24 of 126 tracked releases.

Reaction = USDJPY move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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