Japan

CPI excl. Food and Energy y/y JPY

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Nov 19 23:30 UTC · consensus 2.2% · previous 2.4%  

What this release is

Japan’s national statistics office, stat.go.jp, publishes the monthly Consumer Price Index excluding Food and Energy. This series measures the year-over-year percentage change in the prices consumers pay for a basket of goods and services, specifically excluding the often volatile food and energy components. It serves as a key indicator of underlying inflation in the prices sector.

Forex traders closely watch this core inflation data because it provides insight into the persistent price trends within the Japanese economy. Significant shifts in core inflation can influence the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decisions, which in turn affect interest rate differentials and the overall valuation of the Japanese Yen.

After past releases, market participants typically focus on the headline figure for immediate reaction. Revisions to previous months’ data can also draw attention and prompt further analysis. This release is generally considered to have a Medium impact on the JPY, often leading to noticeable, though not always sustained, movements in currency pairs.

How hard it hits, measured

124 releases · own feed
Typical USDJPY move
7pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
12pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
50pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
USDJPY2.0p2.4p7.1p12p
AUDJPY1.7p2.7p6.2p11p
CADJPY1.5p2.5p5.3p9.9p
CHFJPY1.8p2.2p6.6p11p
EURJPY2.1p3.2p7.6p13p
GBPJPY2.7p3.6p9.1p15p
NZDJPY1.5p2.1p4.5p11p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus USDJPY closed the hour higher in 26 of 44 cases · median +4.3p n=44 live
Miss below consensus USDJPY closed the hour higher in 31 of 42 cases · median +4.5p n=42 live
In line within the surprise band USDJPY closed the hour higher in 15 of 24 cases · median +1.5p n=24 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toUSDJPY 1h
Oct 22, 20262.4%1.8%1.9%2%-42p—
Sep 17, 20262%1.6%1.9%1.9%+22p—
Aug 20, 20261.8%1.6%1.7%1.7%+11p—
Jul 23, 20261.7%1.7%1.8%—+4.7p—
Jun 18, 20261.8%1.8%1.9%—-9.7p—
May 21, 20261.9%2.1%2.4%———
Apr 23, 20262.4%2.4%2.4%—-1.8p—
Mar 23, 20262.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%——
Feb 19, 20262.6%2.9%2.9%2.9%+21p—
Jan 22, 20262.9%3%3%—+7.7p—
Dec 18, 20253%3.1%3.1%—+9.9p—
Nov 20, 20253.1%2.8%3%—+6.1p—
Oct 23, 20253%3.3%3.3%—-8.4p—
Sep 18, 20253.3%3.5%3.4%—+15p—
Aug 21, 20253.4%3.6%3.4%—-3.7p—
Jul 17, 20253.4%3.4%3.3%—+21p—
Jun 19, 20253.3%3.3%3%—-2.9p—
May 22, 20253%3.3%2.9%—-5.0p—
Apr 17, 20252.9%3%2.6%—-6.3p—
Mar 20, 20252.6%2.6%2.5%—+14p—
Feb 20, 20252.5%2.5%2.4%—+50p—
Jan 23, 20252.4%2.6%2.4%—+14p—
Dec 19, 20242.4%2.2%2.3%—+17p—
Nov 21, 20242.3%1.9%2.1%—-14p—

Showing the latest 24 of 124 tracked releases.

Reaction = USDJPY move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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