Exports y/y - ForexCracked
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Japan

Exports y/y JPY

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Tue, Oct 20 23:50 UTC · consensus 11% · previous 19.3%  

What this release is

Japan’s Exports year-over-year measures the percentage change in the value of goods and services exported from Japan compared to the same month in the previous year. This key indicator of the trade sector is published monthly by Japan Customs, providing insight into the nation’s external demand and manufacturing activity. The official source for this data is customs.go.jp.

Forex traders monitor this release as it reflects the strength of Japan’s export-oriented economy. Robust export growth often signals healthy global demand for Japanese products, which can lead to increased foreign currency inflows and potentially strengthen the Japanese yen. It also provides a gauge of economic activity that may influence future monetary policy considerations.

The market typically focuses on the headline year-over-year percentage change for this monthly release. Significant deviations from expectations, either positive or negative, often draw immediate attention. While the initial reading is key, any revisions to previous months’ data are also observed for a more complete picture of ongoing trade trends.

How hard it hits, measured

123 releases · own feed
Typical USDJPY move
7pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
11pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
68pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
USDJPY1.6p5.4p7.4p11p
AUDJPY1.9p3.7p7.5p12p
CADJPY1.4p3.5p4.5p8.2p
CHFJPY1.8p4.1p5.5p10p
EURJPY1.7p4.6p5.5p14p
GBPJPY2.5p5.6p7.6p13p
NZDJPY1.8p4.0p6.6p12p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus USDJPY closed the hour higher in 33 of 54 cases · median +5.0p n=54 live
Miss below consensus USDJPY closed the hour higher in 32 of 50 cases · median +2.2p n=50 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toUSDJPY 1h
Sep 15, 202619.3%21.2%23.2%—+1.3p—
Aug 19, 202623.2%22.3%19.3%—+14p—
Jul 21, 202619.3%27.2%17%16.8%-6.8p—
Jun 16, 202617%15.4%14.8%—-2.1p—
May 20, 202614.8%9.2%11.7%11.5%——
Apr 21, 202611.7%1.8%4.2%4%-9.1p—
Mar 17, 20264.2%—16.8%16.8%——
Feb 17, 202616.8%—5.1%5.1%-5.8p—
Jan 22, 20265.1%—6.1%6.1%+8.8p—
Dec 16, 20256.1%3.8%3.6%—-10p—
Nov 20, 20253.6%-0.8%4.2%—-5.7p—
Oct 21, 20254.2%-1.4%-0.1%-0.1%-22p—
Sep 16, 2025-0.1%-1.2%-2.6%—+8.2p—
Aug 19, 2025-2.6%3.4%-0.5%—+7.6p—
Jul 16, 2025-0.5%3.4%-1.7%—+36p—
Jun 17, 2025-1.7%3.4%2%—-10p—
May 20, 20252%7.4%3.9%4%-1.8p—
Apr 16, 20253.9%6.7%11.4%—+68p—
Mar 18, 202511.4%0.1%7.2%7.3%+11p—
Feb 18, 20257.2%-1%2.8%—+4.1p—
Jan 22, 20252.8%-0.3%3.8%—-4.0p—
Dec 17, 20243.8%0.3%3.1%—+22p—
Nov 19, 20243.1%2.6%-1.7%—+21p—
Oct 16, 2024-1.7%5.8%5.6%5.5%-6.8p—

Showing the latest 24 of 123 tracked releases.

Reaction = USDJPY move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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