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Japan

Large Retailer's Sales y/y JPY

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Sun, Nov 29 23:50 UTC · consensus TBA  

What this release is

Japan’s Large Retailer’s Sales, reported year-over-year, measures the annual percentage change in sales revenue for major retail establishments across the country. This monthly indicator provides insight into the health of the consumer sector. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, meti.go.jp, publishes this data.

Forex traders monitor large retailer sales as a key gauge of consumer spending, a significant driver of economic growth. Stronger sales figures can signal robust domestic demand, potentially influencing the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy outlook. Changes in policy expectations, particularly regarding interest rates, can affect the valuation of the Japanese Yen.

The market typically focuses on the headline year-over-year percentage change upon release. Revisions to previous months’ data can also draw attention, sometimes altering the initial market reaction. After past releases, the Japanese Yen has shown a medium impact, reflecting the importance of consumer activity to the broader economic narrative.

How hard it hits, measured

122 releases · own feed
Typical USDJPY move
7pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
16pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
48pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
USDJPY1.3p4.3p7.0p16p
AUDJPY2.1p4.0p7.3p13p
CADJPY1.1p3.8p5.9p9.9p
CHFJPY1.6p4.2p6.2p12p
EURJPY1.7p5.5p8.3p14p
GBPJPY2.0p6.7p8.7p18p
NZDJPY1.8p3.3p6.7p11p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus USDJPY closed the hour higher in 31 of 53 cases · median +1.9p n=53 live
Miss below consensus USDJPY closed the hour higher in 20 of 39 cases · median +0.4p n=39 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=4 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toUSDJPY 1h
Oct 29, 2026————-29p—
Aug 30, 20261.4%1.4%-1%—-9.9p—
Jul 30, 2026-1%3.5%5%—+48p—
Jun 28, 20265%2.2%2%—-3.5p—
May 28, 20262%0.8%1.1%—+2.3p—
Apr 29, 20261.1%—1.8%1.4%+0.2p—
Mar 30, 20261.8%0.6%2.6%2.6%——
Feb 26, 20262.6%—-0.1%-0.1%-12p—
Jan 29, 2026-0.1%—3.2%3.2%+42p—
Dec 25, 20253.2%—3.3%3.4%+31p—
Nov 27, 20253.3%0.6%1.9%1.9%+16p—
Oct 30, 20251.9%0.5%1.8%—+1.9p—
Sep 29, 20251.8%0.4%0.4%—+21p—
Aug 28, 20250.4%0.7%-0.1%—+0.4p—
Jul 30, 2025-0.1%0.9%0.6%—+3.1p—
Jun 26, 20250.6%1.5%1.5%—+14p—
May 29, 20251.5%1.1%1.7%—+8.2p—
Apr 29, 20251.7%2.4%0.6%0.7%+2.4p—
Mar 30, 20250.6%2.7%2.9%3.6%-12p—
Feb 27, 20252.9%3.6%2.9%—-33p—
Jan 30, 20252.9%4.4%3.5%—+9.7p—
Dec 26, 20243.5%4.2%-0.5%-0.4%+6.9p—
Nov 28, 2024-0.5%4.7%1.8%1.6%-31p—
Oct 30, 20241.8%3.2%4.4%4.3%+14p—

Showing the latest 24 of 123 tracked releases.

Reaction = USDJPY move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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