Japan

Tokyo Core CPI y/y JPY

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Nov 26 23:30 UTC · consensus 2.8% · previous 2.6%  

What this release is

The Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index, published monthly by Japan’s national statistics office, measures the year-over-year change in the cost of a basket of goods and services for consumers in the Tokyo metropolitan area. This core measure typically excludes fresh food prices due to their volatility. It provides insight into inflation trends within a significant economic region of Japan.

Forex traders closely monitor Tokyo Core CPI as an early indicator of nationwide inflation pressures and their potential influence on the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decisions. Sustained price changes in Tokyo can signal broader inflationary or deflationary trends across the country. The central bank’s inflation targets are a key consideration, making this data relevant for JPY valuation.

Upon its monthly release, market participants often focus on the headline year-over-year percentage change. While revisions to prior data are sometimes noted, the initial reading typically drives immediate market reactions. After past releases, the Japanese Yen has shown a medium impact, reflecting the market’s assessment of the inflation outlook and its implications for interest rates.

How hard it hits, measured

124 releases · own feed
Typical USDJPY move
7pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
14pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
50pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
USDJPY2.1p2.6p7.1p14p
AUDJPY2.0p2.8p7.3p15p
CADJPY1.8p2.4p5.2p11p
CHFJPY2.3p3.0p6.9p13p
EURJPY2.2p2.9p7.8p14p
GBPJPY3.2p3.7p9.1p18p
NZDJPY2.1p2.2p6.0p12p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus USDJPY closed the hour higher in 33 of 59 cases · median +2.1p n=59 live
Miss below consensus USDJPY closed the hour higher in 20 of 39 cases · median +0.9p n=39 live
In line within the surprise band USDJPY closed the hour higher in 6 of 11 cases · median +0.5p n=11 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toUSDJPY 1h
Oct 29, 20262.6%2.5%2.7%—+4.2p—
Oct 1, 20262.7%1.9%1.8%—-6.8p—
Aug 27, 20261.8%2.2%1.9%1.7%+0.9p—
Jul 30, 20261.9%2.1%1.6%—+36p—
Jun 25, 20261.6%1.7%1.3%—+2.3p—
May 28, 20261.3%1.4%1.5%—+4.0p—
Apr 30, 20261.5%0.9%1.7%———
Mar 30, 20261.7%1.4%1.8%———
Feb 26, 20261.8%2.2%2%—-22p—
Jan 29, 20262%2.3%2.3%—+50p—
Dec 25, 20252.3%2.8%2.8%—+42p—
Nov 27, 20252.8%2.4%2.8%—+8.8p—
Oct 30, 20252.8%2.3%2.5%—-19p—
Sep 25, 20252.5%2.9%2.5%—-8.7p—
Aug 28, 20252.5%3%2.9%—+4.5p—
Jul 24, 20252.9%2.9%3.1%—+5.7p—
Jun 26, 20253.1%3.2%3.6%—+30p—
May 29, 20253.6%3%3.4%—-23p—
Apr 24, 20253.4%2.6%2.4%—+12p—
Mar 27, 20252.4%2.2%2.2%—+3.7p—
Feb 27, 20252.2%2.2%2.5%—-4.2p—
Jan 30, 20252.5%2.6%2.4%—-15p—
Dec 26, 20242.4%2.4%2.2%—+1.3p—
Nov 28, 20242.2%2.3%1.8%—-37p—

Showing the latest 24 of 124 tracked releases.

Reaction = USDJPY move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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