Continuing Jobless Claims - ForexCracked
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United States

Continuing Jobless Claims USD

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Sep 10 12:30 UTC · consensus 1.774M · previous 1.779M  

What this release is

Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who are currently receiving unemployment benefits. This figure includes those who have already filed an initial claim and continue to qualify for assistance. The U.S. Department of Labor publishes this weekly report, providing insight into the ongoing state of the national labor market.

Forex traders monitor Continuing Jobless Claims as a key indicator of labor market health. A sustained increase in claims can signal a weakening job market, potentially influencing the central bank’s monetary policy decisions regarding interest rates. Conversely, a consistent decline may suggest a strengthening economy. Changes in interest rate expectations can affect the U.S. Dollar’s valuation against other currencies.

The market typically focuses on the headline number of Continuing Jobless Claims upon its weekly release. While the initial reading often draws attention, any revisions to prior weeks’ data are also noted for their implications. This weekly cadence allows market participants to frequently update their assessment of labor market trends, contributing to ongoing adjustments in forex trading strategies.

How hard it hits, measured

523 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
10pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
20pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
187pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD5.0p6.5p10p20p
AUDUSD3.6p4.5p7.8p13p
GBPUSD5.5p8.5p13p24p
NZDUSD3.5p4.3p7.8p13p
USDCAD4.4p5.6p9.7p17p
USDCHF4.2p5.4p8.1p16p
USDJPY5.8p7.4p10p21p
XAUUSD16p20p29p66p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 48 of 87 cases · median +1.6p n=87 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 57 of 108 cases · median -1.8p n=108 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour lower in 143 of 284 cases · median -0.2p n=284 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Sep 3, 20261.779M1.787M1.778M1.771M+13p
Aug 27, 20261.778M1.79M1.799M1.796M+16p
Aug 20, 20261.799M1.777M1.777M1.781M+1.0p
Aug 13, 20261.777M1.777M1.801M1.799M+3.7p
Aug 6, 20261.801M1.772M1.782M1.777M-4.5pStory
Jul 30, 20261.782M1.819M1.796M1.789M+3.8p
Jul 23, 20261.796M1.821M1.805M1.798M-7.6p
Jul 16, 20261.805M1.831M1.814M1.821M-6.3p
Jul 9, 20261.814M1.831M1.814M1.806M+1.8p
Jul 2, 20261.814M1.824M1.821M1.812M
Jun 25, 20261.821M1.832M1.81M1.8M+25p
Jun 18, 20261.81M1.799M1.795M1.786M+0.7p
Jun 11, 20261.795M1.782M1.777M1.771M+3.7p
Jun 4, 20261.777M1.775M1.786M1.785M-1.6p
May 28, 20261.786M1.764M1.782M1.771M+8.5p
May 21, 20261.782M1.805M1.782M1.776M-5.0p
May 14, 20261.782M1.812M1.766M1.758M-9.2p
May 7, 20261.766M1.82M1.785M1.776M+5.7p
Apr 30, 20261.785M1.825M1.821M1.808M-8.8p
Apr 23, 20261.821M1.814M1.818M1.809M-0.1p
Apr 16, 20261.818M1.832M1.794M1.787M-0.2p
Apr 9, 20261.794M1.847M1.841M1.832M+3.5p
Apr 2, 20261.841M1.852M1.819M1.816M+0.6p
Mar 26, 20261.819M1.857M1.857M1.851M+9.4p

Showing the latest 24 of 200 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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