Germany CPI y/y - ForexCracked
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Euro area

Germany CPI y/y EUR

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Oct 30 13:00 UTC · consensus 3.1% · previous 3.3%  

What this release is

The Germany Consumer Price Index, CPI, year over year, measures the percentage change in the price of a basket of consumer goods and services over the past year. This monthly report is published by Germany’s national statistics office, Destatis, which maintains the official source website destatis.de. It provides a key insight into the prices sector of the German economy.

Forex traders monitor German CPI as a crucial indicator of inflation within the Eurozone’s largest economy. Significant changes in this inflation rate can influence the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decisions, impacting the Euro’s valuation against other currencies. For instance, sustained higher inflation might lead the ECB to consider tightening monetary policy.

The market typically reacts to the headline year over year figure upon its monthly release. While initial attention often focuses on this primary number, subsequent revisions to previous months’ data can also draw scrutiny. After past releases, unexpected deviations from market forecasts have often led to increased volatility for the Euro. This report carries a typical impact rating of Medium.

How hard it hits, measured

241 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
7pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
13pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
58pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD2.3p3.6p6.9p13p
EURAUD3.1p4.8p12p20p
EURCAD2.7p4.2p9.7p17p
EURCHF1.3p2.3p4.3p8.5p
EURGBP1.9p2.7p5.6p9.8p
EURJPY3.0p4.6p9.1p17p
EURNZD4.0p5.6p13p21p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 22 of 35 cases · median -1.3p n=35 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 25 of 47 cases · median -1.5p n=47 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour lower in 54 of 102 cases · median -0.1p n=102 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Oct 13, 20263.3%3.3%3.3%—-1.6p—
Sep 30, 20263.3%2.7%2.9%—+14p—
Sep 10, 20262.9%2.9%2.9%—-0.1p—
Aug 31, 20262.9%2.2%2.8%—-1.3p—
Aug 12, 20262.8%—2.8%———
Jul 30, 20262.8%—2.3%———
Jul 10, 20262.3%—2.3%———
Jun 30, 20262.3%—2.6%———
Jun 12, 20262.6%2.6%2.6%—+16p—
May 29, 20262.6%2.1%2.9%—+1.3p—
May 12, 20262.9%2.9%2.9%—-12p—
Apr 29, 20262.9%2.6%2.7%—-1.8p—
Apr 10, 20262.7%2.7%2.7%—-5.7p—
Mar 30, 20262.7%2%1.9%—-1.8p—
Mar 11, 20261.9%1.9%1.9%—-16p—
Feb 27, 20261.9%2.1%2.1%—-9.7p—
Feb 17, 20262.1%2.1%2.1%—-11p—
Jan 30, 20262.1%1.7%1.8%—-6.9p—
Jan 16, 20261.8%1.8%1.8%—+2.7p—
Jan 6, 20261.8%2.3%2.3%—+9.9p—
Dec 12, 20252.3%2.3%2.3%—-1.0p—
Nov 28, 20252.3%2.3%2.3%—+8.8p—
Nov 12, 20252.3%2.3%2.3%—+1.8p—
Oct 30, 20252.3%2.3%2.4%—+25p—

Showing the latest 24 of 200 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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