Euro area

Germany GfK Consumer Climate EUR

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Nov 26 07:00 UTC · consensus TBA  

What this release is

The Germany GfK Consumer Climate report assesses the mood and expectations of German consumers. This monthly release, published by GfK, an official source at gfk.com, provides key insights into the consumer sector of the economy. It aims to capture the general sentiment regarding economic prospects and household finances.

Forex traders monitor this release because consumer sentiment often correlates with future spending patterns. Stronger consumer confidence can signal increased consumption, which contributes to economic expansion. Such economic trends can influence the European Central Bank’s monetary policy outlook, thereby affecting the Euro currency’s valuation.

After past releases, market participants typically focus on the headline figure for immediate indications. Revisions to previous months’ data are also observed for their implications. The release is a monthly event, and its typical impact on the market is considered medium.

How hard it hits, measured

124 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
8pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
12pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
35pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD1.8p3.2p8.3p12p
EURAUD3.0p5.1p9.3p16p
EURCAD2.2p4.0p7.8p12p
EURCHF1.5p2.4p4.1p7.1p
EURGBP1.5p2.1p4.0p10p
EURJPY3.0p4.7p9.1p14p
EURNZD3.2p5.0p9.6p19p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 17 of 30 cases · median -2.9p n=30 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 20 of 39 cases · median +0.1p n=39 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour higher in 8 of 15 cases · median 0.0p n=15 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Sep 25, 2026-30.6-28.4-26.6-26.8+11p—
Aug 27, 2026-26.6-29.5-29.6-29.4-0.3p—
Jul 24, 2026-29.6-28.1-29.2-29.3+8.6p—
Jun 25, 2026-29.2—-29.8-29.7-8.3p—
May 22, 2026-29.8-35-33.3-33.1+0.8p—
Apr 27, 2026-33.3—-28-28.1+7.3p—
Mar 26, 2026-28—-24.7-24.8-13p—
Feb 25, 2026-24.7—-24.1-24.2-8.3p—
Jan 28, 2026-24.1—-26.9-26.9-3.8p—
Dec 19, 2025-26.9—-23.2-23.4-12p—
Nov 27, 2025-23.2-22.5-24.1-24.1-0.6p—
Oct 28, 2025-24.1—-22.3-22.5-0.5p—
Sep 25, 2025-22.3-21.6-23.6-23.6+3.8p—
Aug 27, 2025-23.6—-21.5-21.7+0.5p—
Jul 24, 2025-21.5-19.1-20.3-20.3-14p—
Jun 26, 2025-20.3-21-19.9-20+14p—
May 27, 2025-19.9-21.8-20.6-20.8-13p—
Apr 29, 2025-20.6-23.1-24.5-24.3+2.7p—
Mar 28, 2025-24.5-22.6-24.7-24.6+2.2p—
Feb 26, 2025-24.7-23.3-22.4-22.6-0.4p—
Jan 29, 2025-22.4-22.5-21.3-21.4-21p—
Dec 19, 2024-21.3-21.6-23.3-23.1+9.8p—
Nov 27, 2024-23.3-19.7-18.3-18.4+18p—
Oct 29, 2024-18.3-19.4-21.2-21-1.8p—

Showing the latest 24 of 123 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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