ECB Households Loans y/y - ForexCracked
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Euro area

ECB Households Loans y/y EUR

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Tue, Oct 27 09:00 UTC · consensus 3% · previous 3.1%  

What this release is

The ECB Households Loans y/y series tracks the annual growth rate of loans extended to households within the Eurozone. This monthly release is published by the European Central Bank, available on ecb.europa.eu, and is categorized under the money sector.

Forex traders monitor household loan growth as an indicator of consumer demand and overall economic activity. Stronger loan growth can suggest increased consumer confidence and spending, potentially influencing inflation expectations and the European Central Bank’s monetary policy stance, which in turn can affect the euro’s valuation.

This release typically carries a Medium impact rating. Market participants usually focus on the headline year-over-year figure, comparing it against consensus expectations. Significant deviations from forecasts can prompt market reactions, as traders assess the implications for the Eurozone economy and future central bank actions.

How hard it hits, measured

123 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
7pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
12pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
35pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD2.2p3.7p6.6p12p
EURAUD4.0p5.1p9.4p18p
EURCAD3.0p5.1p8.8p15p
EURCHF1.7p2.7p5.0p9.8p
EURGBP1.7p2.2p5.9p10p
EURJPY3.2p5.2p8.8p16p
EURNZD4.0p6.1p12p20p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 22 of 31 cases · median -4.3p n=31 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 17 of 33 cases · median 0.0p n=33 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour lower in 18 of 29 cases · median -1.9p n=29 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Sep 25, 20263.1%3%3.1%—+1.6p—
Aug 27, 20263.1%2.9%3%—-6.6p—
Jul 27, 20263%3%3.1%3%+6.2p—
Jun 29, 20263.1%3%3%—-6.5p—
Jun 1, 20263%3.1%3%—+1.1p—
Apr 29, 20263%3.1%3%—-5.3p—
Mar 26, 20263%3.1%3%—-0.1p—
Feb 26, 20263%3.2%3%—-5.3p—
Jan 29, 20263%—2.9%2.9%-13p—
Jan 2, 20262.9%—2.8%—-7.2p—
Nov 27, 20252.8%2.6%2.6%—-15p—
Oct 27, 20252.6%2.6%2.5%2.5%+9.5p—
Sep 25, 20252.5%2.4%2.4%—+9.5p—
Aug 28, 20252.4%2.3%2.2%—-1.5p—
Jul 25, 20252.2%2.1%2%—-9.4p—
Jun 30, 20252%2%1.9%—+4.8p—
May 30, 20251.9%1.8%1.7%—-14p—
Apr 29, 20251.7%1.6%1.5%—-18p—
Mar 27, 20251.5%1.3%1.3%—-5.1p—
Feb 27, 20251.3%1.1%1.1%—+5.9p—
Jan 29, 20251.1%0.9%0.9%—-21p—
Jan 2, 20250.9%0.9%0.8%—-11p—
Nov 28, 20240.8%0.9%0.7%—-12p—
Oct 25, 20240.7%0.7%0.6%—-0.5p—

Showing the latest 24 of 123 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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