ECB Vice President de Guindos Speech - ForexCracked
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Euro area

ECB Vice President de Guindos Speech EUR

Medium impact Updated after every release

What this release is

The ECB Vice President de Guindos Speech provides insights into the European Central Bank’s (ECB) views on the economy, monetary policy, and financial stability. These addresses are published by the ECB, the official source of which is ecb.europa.eu, and fall within the money sector.

Forex traders monitor these speeches closely for indications of future monetary policy direction, including potential changes to interest rates or asset purchase programs. Statements from high-ranking central bank officials can influence market expectations for the euro’s valuation, as policy shifts directly impact the currency’s attractiveness.

The market typically reacts to the specific content and tone of the speech, particularly any forward-looking guidance or assessments of economic risks. As a live event, the market digests key statements as they are delivered, with attention paid to both prepared remarks and responses during question and answer sessions. There are no revisions to a central bank official’s speech.

How hard it hits, measured

293 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
7pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
12pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
62pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD2.0p3.5p6.8p12p
EURAUD3.1p5.6p9.2p17p
EURCAD2.3p3.9p8.3p15p
EURCHF1.5p3.0p4.8p8.5p
EURGBP1.7p2.6p4.9p9.0p
EURJPY2.9p4.6p8.4p17p
EURNZD3.5p5.9p11p20p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
Miss below consensus Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live
In line within the surprise band Accumulating. Shows after 8 live-captured releases n=0 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
May 8, 2026-1.3p
May 7, 2026+0.1p
May 4, 2026-1.4p
Apr 21, 2026-10p
Apr 13, 2026+12p
Apr 10, 2026+2.5p
Mar 26, 2026-0.1p
Mar 11, 2026-23p
Mar 5, 2026+27p
Mar 4, 2026-6.3p
Feb 19, 2026-7.0p
Feb 13, 2026+3.3p
Feb 13, 2026-3.2p
Jan 15, 2026+4.9p
Jan 14, 2026+5.1p
Jan 12, 2026+2.3p
Jan 8, 2026-2.1p
Dec 4, 2025-5.3p
Nov 27, 2025-0.9p
Nov 21, 2025-14p
Nov 21, 2025-0.7p
Nov 17, 2025-12p
Nov 12, 2025+4.5p
Nov 6, 2025+3.4p

Showing the latest 24 of 200 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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