Economic Sentiment Indicator - ForexCracked
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Euro area

Economic Sentiment Indicator EUR

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Thu, Oct 29 10:00 UTC · consensus 96.3 · previous 97.9  

What this release is

The Economic Sentiment Indicator for the Eurozone measures the overall mood of businesses and consumers regarding the economy. It is published monthly by the European Commission, found at ec.europa.eu, and primarily focuses on the business sector, gathering data on confidence across various industries.

Forex traders monitor this indicator as a gauge of economic health and future activity within the Eurozone. Stronger sentiment can suggest potential for economic growth, which may influence expectations for the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decisions and, consequently, the value of the euro.

The market typically focuses on the headline figure of the Economic Sentiment Indicator upon its release. After past releases, the euro has often shown a Medium impact, with significant deviations from expectations sometimes leading to noticeable price action. Its monthly cadence allows traders to regularly assess shifts in economic confidence.

How hard it hits, measured

123 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
6pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
12pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
64pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD2.2p2.9p6.3p12p
EURAUD3.1p5.0p11p17p
EURCAD2.8p3.4p7.1p12p
EURCHF1.7p2.4p5.0p8.5p
EURGBP1.5p2.4p4.5p9.3p
EURJPY3.2p4.6p8.5p15p
EURNZD3.7p4.9p10p17p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 11 of 17 cases · median +5.2p n=17 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 10 of 19 cases · median -0.3p n=19 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour lower in 39 of 77 cases · median -0.1p n=77 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Sep 29, 202697.998.498.4—-13p—
Aug 28, 202698.496.996.997.1-4.8pStory
Jul 30, 202696.992.39595.4+16p—
Jun 29, 20269593.893.593.7+7.4p—
May 28, 202693.595.49393.2-2.5p—
Apr 29, 20269398.296.696.2-2.7p—
Mar 30, 202696.698.698.398.2-1.6p—
Feb 26, 202698.396.599.499.3+1.3p—
Jan 29, 202699.495.296.797.2-14p—
Jan 8, 202696.796.59797.1+3.0p—
Nov 27, 20259795.896.8—+6.3p—
Oct 30, 202596.895.195.595.6-9.5p—
Sep 29, 202595.594.895.295.3-5.8p—
Aug 28, 202595.294.595.8—+6.3p—
Jul 30, 202595.8969494.2-4.8p—
Jun 27, 20259493.594.8—-0.3p—
May 27, 202594.894.493.6—-0.1p—
Apr 29, 202593.695.595.295-5.0p—
Mar 28, 202595.295.196.3—-4.9p—
Feb 27, 202596.39695.295.3-2.7p—
Jan 30, 202595.29593.7—-6.8p—
Jan 8, 202593.796.195.895.6-0.3p—
Nov 28, 202495.896.595.695.7+19p—
Oct 30, 202495.697.296.296.3-5.4p—

Showing the latest 24 of 123 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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