Spain CPI y/y - ForexCracked
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Euro area

Spain CPI y/y EUR

Medium impact Updated after every release
Next release Fri, Oct 30 08:00 UTC · consensus 4.5% · previous 4.9%  

What this release is

Spain’s Consumer Price Index, released monthly by the national statistics office ine.es, measures the year over year change in the prices of a basket of consumer goods and services. This report provides a key indicator of inflation within the Spanish economy, focusing on the price sector.

Forex traders monitor Spain’s CPI data closely because it offers insight into inflationary pressures in a significant Eurozone economy. The European Central Bank considers inflation trends across the Eurozone when formulating its monetary policy, including decisions on interest rates. Higher or lower inflation readings can influence expectations for future ECB actions, impacting the euro.

After past releases, the market typically reacts to the headline year over year figure. While initial readings can be subject to revision, the report can generate notable market movements for the euro. As a monthly price sector release, it contributes to the broader economic picture for the Eurozone.

How hard it hits, measured

219 releases · own feed
Typical EURUSD move
8pips / 1h
Median absolute move in the hour after the release
Big-release move
14pips / 1h
Top-quarter releases move at least this much
Largest measured
77pips
Biggest one-hour reaction in our archive
Direction reliability
n/a
Unlocks after 8 live-captured releases with consensus. Measured, never estimated
Pair5 min15 min1 hourBig release (1h)
EURUSD2.9p4.5p8.0p14p
EURAUD4.3p6.7p12p23p
EURCAD3.5p5.3p8.6p16p
EURCHF2.0p3.4p6.0p11p
EURGBP2.1p3.8p4.6p9.1p
EURJPY3.9p5.6p11p20p
EURNZD4.7p6.8p13p23p

How we measure: moves come from our own MT4 price feed and our archived minute bars, sampled 5, 15 and 60 minutes after each release against the pre-release price. No estimates, no third-party numbers. Releases where our feed had a gap are skipped, never guessed.

What usually happens

conditional history
Beat above consensus EURUSD closed the hour lower in 31 of 58 cases · median -1.6p n=58 live
Miss below consensus EURUSD closed the hour higher in 27 of 48 cases · median +1.1p n=48 live
In line within the surprise band EURUSD closed the hour higher in 41 of 75 cases · median +1.6p n=75 live

These are counts of what happened after past releases, conditional on the surprise direction. They are history, not a forecast, and never a trade recommendation. Sample sizes are shown because small samples mislead; rows stay locked until the sample is honest.

Release history

accumulates every release
DateActualForecastPreviousRevised toEURUSD 1h
Oct 14, 20264.9%4.9%4.9%—-9.1p—
Sep 29, 20264.9%4.7%4.3%—-10p—
Sep 15, 20264.3%4.3%4.3%—+7.0p—
Aug 28, 20264.3%———-1.1p—
Jul 30, 20263.5%3%3.2%—-9.1p—
Jul 15, 20263.2%3.2%3.2%—-6.4p—
Jun 29, 20263.2%3.1%3.2%—-9.8p—
Jun 12, 20263.2%—3.2%—-6.5p—
May 29, 20263.2%3%3.2%—-12p—
May 14, 20263.2%3.2%3.2%—-11p—
Apr 29, 20263.2%3.5%3.4%—+5.7p—
Apr 14, 20263.4%3.3%3.3%—+2.1p—
Mar 27, 20263.3%2.4%2.3%—+2.0p—
Mar 13, 20262.3%2.3%2.3%—-13p—
Feb 27, 20262.3%2.1%2.3%—-5.3p—
Feb 13, 20262.3%2.4%2.4%—+3.9p—
Jan 30, 20262.4%2.8%2.9%—-4.9p—
Jan 15, 20262.9%2.9%2.9%—+2.1p—
Dec 30, 20252.9%3.1%3%—-3.2p—
Dec 12, 20253%3%3%—-9.7p—
Nov 28, 20253%2.9%3.1%—-9.4p—
Nov 14, 20253.1%3.1%3.1%—-3.4p—
Oct 30, 20253.1%2.8%3%—-1.4p—
Oct 15, 20253%2.9%2.9%—+1.7p—

Showing the latest 24 of 200 tracked releases.

Reaction = EURUSD move 60 minutes after the release, measured from our own price history. Story links appear for releases our news desk covered; every release gets a row here whether or not it gets a story. Values from before our live tracking began are the current figures in the official statistical series, so they include later revisions; live rows record the number as printed.

Market statistics, not financial advice. All reaction figures are measured from our own price feed under our published methodology.
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